[a subtropical or tropical depression is likely to form early this week while the system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic.]

Vamos abriendo topic porque la ultima salida de los modelos ya no deja lugar a dudas





2. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern
Atlantic later today, where a broad area of low pressure is expected
to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form early this week while the
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to
middle part of this week. The disturbance is also expected to bring
locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this
weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of
this system.   
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

El GFS lleva días insinuando soluciones cada cual más loca que la anterior, la última salida no tiene desperdicio, escabechina de Florida



Saludos

Enviado desde mi 5028A mediante Tapatalk

NICOLE is here

SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORMS NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS... ...PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK...

[models suggest that it could make a transition to a tropical cyclone and develop a smaller inner-core wind field in about 2 to 3 days, and at that point more significant intensification is possible.]

Destaco del primer parte;

Although Nicole is likely to
maintain a large wind field, models suggest that it could make a
transition to a tropical cyclone and develop a smaller inner-core
wind field in about 2 to 3 days, and at that point more significant
intensification is possible. 

For now, the NHC intensity forecast
brings Nicole close to hurricane strength in 60-72 hours while it
moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the east coast of
Florida, which is in line with the HCCA consensus aid.  It's not out
of the question for Nicole to reach hurricane strength, especially
given how warm the waters are in the vicinity of the Bahamas

Pico de 60kts



Su aspecto en satélite es bastante mejorable, pero bueno, poco a poco



Mucho aire seco veo yo ahí, a ver como se organiza

Ya le dan estatus de huracán, frente a Florida

Hay anomalía positiva de temperatura en superficie, y un buen contenido de OHC en aguas profundas.

La Corriente del Golfo puede obrar el milagro 

Transición completa, ya es Tropical.

Diría que tiene cizalladura de sur zumbandola... El parte pronostica crecimiento hasta tocar tierra, como huracán

[Deep convection has developed and persisted near the center ofNicole this morning]

No entiendo el NHC a veces



Deep convection has developed and persisted near the center of
Nicole this morning and while there are still some characteristics
of a subtropical cyclone, the smaller radius of maximum winds and
improving inner-core convection suggest it has made the transition
to a tropical cyclone.



No deja de ser anecdótico, pero Nicole aún es subtropical; por datos medidos, por estructura, y por aspecto satelital

Parece el típico sistema tropical generado en el seno de una BFA que hemos presenciado estos ultimos años. A ver cómo llega a Florida

Por estructura..., es un sistema ligeramente cizallado, pero con core cálido sin aire seco dentro del mismo

Si tiene forma de coma achatada, pero es que tiene una circulación enorme

No se yo...





Muy achatada está esa coma. Yo aún lo veo más subtropical que otra cosa. Pero vamos que tarde o temprano terminará la transición y mañana a estas horas lo más probable es que el Nicole sea huracán

Cerrando el anillo de convección  profunda....



Saludos

[although the cyclone will likely also be contending with someshear and a dry and not particularly unstable environment.]

Su aspecto actual es mucho más "sano" que el de ayer



Nicole will continue to move over warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius
today, although the cyclone will likely also be contending with some
shear and a dry and not particularly unstable environment.
Therefore, only slight additional strengthening is anticipated, and
Nicole could still become a hurricane later today while it moves
across the northwestern Bahamas and reaches the east coast of
Florida.

Ayer había mucho aire seco; durante la madrugada su aspecto era bastante mediocre, pero actualmente está desarrollando un nuevo CDO, sin estar asociado a ningún frente ni estructura nubosa exterior. Además, se está adentrando en aguas de la Corriente del Golfo, por lo que el pico de 65kts, partiendo de los actuales 60kts-980mb que posee, se me hace un pelín corto.

Tiene buena circulacion y tal, buen outflow, pero la convección es muy pobre. Los topes no son muy frios. Da la sensación que el aire seco está inhibiendo más de lo pronosticado