[40kts-1002mb]

Va animándose la temporada Atlántica.



40kts-1002mb



The moderate shear currently affecting Dexter is expected to
increase to over 20 kt in 12-24 hours, and then to about 30 kt in
36-48 hours.  As a result, not much strengthening is anticipated.
Much of the intensity guidance shows a fairly steady intensity
between 40-50 kt through 72 hours, and the NHC forecast therefore
takes the middle of the road and shows a peak of 45 kt.  Dexter is
likely to be post-tropical by 60 hours, if not sooner, as the
stronger shear strips the storm's convection away.  The bulk of the
global models suggest it could then become extratropical again by
day 4 and then be absorbed by a front by day 5, but there is a lot
of uncertainty in that forecast.

Paso a paso, ese pico de 45kts en el pronostico se me hace corto.

Teniendo en cuenta como se deshace todo en el Atlántico y teniendo la masa africana encima nuestra, intuyo valores altos de SAL.

Eso, y que este verano el jet ha estado más bajo de lo habitual, con el consiguiente aporte de cizalladura al Atlántico

[Objective intensity estimates are somewhat higher, but since the organization of the system has not improved since earlier today, the intensity is not increased on this advisory.]

Esto no son 35kts



The current intensity
estimate is 35 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates
from TAFB and SAB.  Objective intensity estimates are somewhat
higher, but since the organization of the system has not improved
since earlier today, the intensity is not increased on this
advisory.

Dexter is expected to intensify somewhat due to its
interaction with the approaching upper-level trough and baroclinic
forcing, while losing its tropical characteristics.

Pico de 50kts en 36hr. Yo creo que ya ronda esa intensidad

Ojito con Dexter no vaya a dar un susto....