Bueno bueno....tiene una pinta impresionante


Cizalladura.


CMC en 3 días.


Me recuerda a Bill el año pasado, que los modelos empezaron a ver desarrollo 4-5 días antes....



Y ya que estamos, desarrollo en el Mar de los Sargazos(núcleo calido marcado)....

Está interesante la cosa. El GFS además pronostica un carrusel de sistemas, de la C a la F... 

Ya me los he aprendido de memoria: Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fhiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor......

Otra más. A ver si aguanta así. No hay rastro de SAL en esa zona.

Sí que es curiosa esa O.T. Hasta le ha salido un "lunar" en pleno centro al borbotón convectivo

ECMWF recula y no ve nada en la salida de las 12z 

[A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OFGUATEMALA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTEREDTHUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FORGRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ASIT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS ALOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.]

Nueva área de seguimiento en el EPAC

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF
GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Parece que se hace más fuerte

A ver si logra independizarse de la ITCZ, mientras tanto no hay nada que hacer por mucha convectividad que tenga.

A ver si logra independizarse de la ITCZ, mientras tanto no hay nada que hacer por mucha convectividad que tenga.

Yo me fijo en lo de detrás.....en lo que acaba de salir al océano...Es lo que el NGP, el GFS y el europeo ven desarrollo...


Por cierto....


Y el INVEST en el EPAC que está al caer....


Queda mucho tiempo, pero cuando los dos grandes coinciden, es que algo se cuece....

[SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AREMOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMIS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULDAFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.]

 

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH.   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

¡Hombre, ya era hora!
Era tan evidente y llevaban ya persistiendo tanto tiempo las zonas convectivas, incluso con algo de circulación, que sonaba muy raro, que no le hubiesen puesto ya los circulos "amarillos". Claro que como Stewar no estaba "de turno"