[Mar de Coral]

Bueno pues yo también sigo apostando por este sistema ,aunque todavía queda bastantes días...





A raíz de lo que observo , no entraria en tierra o lo haría parcialmente , para luego retirarse hacia el W.

También comentaros que se esta barajando en la posibilidad de un ciclón cat.3 entrando por el Mar de Coral  con dirección W y tocando tierra por el estado de Queensland para la primera quincena de enero.

El ECMWF también ve un ciclón por esa zona de australia 

El ECMWF también ve un ciclón por esa zona de australia 

Pues entonces según veo en los últimos post va a comenzar el el año complicado para la costa oeste de Australia. Cuando el ECMWF y el GFS se ponen de acuerdo casi seguro que hay royo.

Saludos y nos vemos el año que viene. 

En las imagenes del SAT. ya se nota movimiento por esa zona de australia y los modelos 12Z GFS Y ECMWF continuan viendo desarrollo 

[Bureau warns of New Year's cyclone]

Bureau warns of New Year's cyclone

The Bureau of Meteorology is warning there is a strong chance of a cyclone developing in Western Australia's north-west on New Year's Day.

A tropical low is currently located around Katherine in the Northern Territory and is expected to move west in the coming days.

Severe weather forecaster Brad Santos says the bureau is keen to give people as much time as possible to prepare.

"It is very early days considering that the low is still well to our east, over the Northern Territory," he said.

"But the computer models are showing signs that the system is expected to move to the west and it's got a reasonable chance of being a tropical cyclone on New Year's Day off the Pilbara or West Kimberley coast."

Información tomada del abc news de Australia.



Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone three-day outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:21pm WST on Wednesday the 29th of December 2010
Valid until midnight WST Saturday


Existing Cyclones in the Western region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A weak low currently lies over the Top End near Katherine. This low is expected
to move to the west and be close to the west Kimberley coast on Friday night. On
Saturday the low may develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves offshore
towards the west southwest, parallel to the Pilbara coast.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Thursday :Low
Friday :Low
Saturday :High

Another low may form along the monsoon trough between 10S and 12S, 95E to 105E
during Wednesday or Thursday. This low is expected to move to the west and may
develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday before it crosses 90E.

Buen mejunge por el Índico



A priori la baja sobre tierra australiana, y el 97S, son los que mejor aspecto presentan. Tienen circulación aparentemente definida, y en el caso de la baja sobre tierra, parece que podrá entrar bastante en agua

La 97S continua mejorando su aspecto, GFS Y ECMWF le dan desarrollo 

[97-S]

Así, es, ese 97-S lleva activo ya bastantes días.

Aparte de ese 97-S con POOR, tenemos el 98-S, el 99-S con FAIR y el 90-P con GOOD.



Resumiendo:

Buen mejunge por el Índico

El CIMSS refleja este Invest 99S en su página....



Puede estar afectando el desarrollo del 99S al del 98S??

[kauri]

kauri yo creo que sí esta actuando en el desarrollo  del 98 - S , y me uno a tu pregunta....



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AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S 109.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND
FORMATION OF CONVERGENT BANDING NEAR A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 311355Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH 30KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN SIDES OF THE LLCC, WITH 20KT WINDS ON THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SIDES. A 311350Z TRMM 85GHZ PASS SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION
STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTER, BUT THE
LLCC IS STILL EXPOSED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 20-25KTS OF
EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR THAT IS ANALYZED IN THE REGION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS STRONG WESTERLY OUTFLOW INTO A DIFFLUENT
REGION ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

[CIMSS]

El CIMSS deja de seguir al  Invest 99-S  ( West Island )

[CIMSS]

Buenas noches ...

El CIMSS ya  comienza a realizar un seguimiento oficial del  Invest Area 97 -S  - 20110101 1800Z