Invest 92-L (Mar Caribe - Golfo de México)

LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE Y OBSERVACIONES EN LA SUPERFICIE INDICAN
QUE EL DISTURBIO UBICADO EN EL EXTREMO NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE SE
HA VUELO MENOS ORGANIZADO DURANTE LA NOCHE Y LA MAYORIA DE LA
ACTIVIDAD DE AGUACEROS MOVIENDOSE SOBRE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN Y
BELIZE. EL DESARROLLO DE ESTE SISTEMA ANTES DE MOVERSE SOBRE TIERRA
SE HA TORNADO MENOS PROBABLE...SIN EMBARGO AUN EXISTE POTENCIAL UNA
VEZ EL DISTURBIO SE MUEVA SOBRE EL GOLFO DE MEXICO. ESTE SISTEMA
TIENE UNA PROBABILIDAD MEDIANA...50 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN
UN CICLON TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y UNA
PROBABILIDAD ALTA...60 POR CIENTO...DE CONVERTIRSE EN UN CICLON
TROPICAL DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS CINCO DIAS

Sin cambios

ATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.  IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT
WOULD MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR
TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED

Han cancelado el avion de reconocimiento.

HWRF ve Huracán Cat. 1 entrando por la frontera entre México y Texas

Sin cambios

 

No tanto como sin cambios, los primeros rayos del sol nos muestran que la circulación se ha establecido perfectamente y ahora tenemos un centro visible y "seguible" solo falta que la convección comience a agruparse alrededor de dicho centro.



De momento los mayores impedimentos son algo de cizalladura del NW sobre el sistema (entre 10 y 20 KT) y el aire seco que le está haciendo la puñeta. 



Saludos 

Finalmente el NHC abandona el seguimiento del sistema.

2. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.