Otra liebre en el WPAC, lanzada la alerta de formación tropical, posee un chance de HIGH


Primer visible


Track del GFS.

GFS sigue viendo una Tormenta Tropical camino de las costas chinas, mientras el Europeo no ve más allá de una simple depresión tropical.



Misma filosofía que Duksuri.

El pronostico sigue con la misma filosofía, puede que se vaya un poco más al norte, camino nuevamente de Luzón.

No hay manera de que se organice lo más mínimo el dichoso sistema, por lo tanto queda degradado.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
126.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 126.3E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL, IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH INCREASED DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 011920Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING INTO THE LLCC. A SHIP
OBSERVATION 25 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IS REPORTING 1004 MB WITH
05 KNOTS OF WIND. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
RECENTLY WEAKENED AND ALLOWED CONVECTION TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO
THE IMPROVED LLCC AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION, BUT VICINITY TO
LAND, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

A ver si es capaz de recuperarse un poco en el Mar de la China Meridional 

La convección se ha aglutinado en las ultimas horas, pero seguimos más o menos igual...




... castañazo de sistema.

Lanzada nuevamente la alerta por formación ciclónica para el disturbio 96W, a ver si recupera un poco el terreno una vez ya en aguas del Mar de China.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21 Cancelled
Issued at 04/1400Z