Pues si, creo que el Joint Cyclone Center usa un modelo para hacer un análisis automático, que como todos puede llegar a sobreestimar. Pero ESTOFEX lo deja claro,
estamos ante un ciclón de categoría 1 en la escala Saffir-Simpson, con una intensidad de
70kt - 982hPa. En el análisis hablan de vientos de 35m/s que equivalen a unos 126km/h.
Aquí el análisis de ESTOFEX:
Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 17 Sep 2020 19:00 to Fri 18 Sep 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 17 Sep 2020 19:56
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER
The cyclone has reached hurricane strength. It has strengthened significantly after widespread deep convection developed in all quadrants and its satellite representation is that of a hurricane with a number of spiral bands and occasional hints of an eye forming. Winds around the centre are estimated to have risen to near 35 m/s with higher gusts. The central pressure is estimated to be near 982 mb.
The cyclone has gradually moved eastward during the day, slightly faster than most model guidance, and is expected to be very close to the southern Ionian islands tomorrow morning at 06 UTC. By then, it should slow down and become almost stationary. Model guidance remains very divided about its fate, with some models like ICON let the cyclone disspate fully, whereas others, including GFS and ECMWF, predict it to move back onto sea to the south or even south-southwest. The forecast reflects the latter scenario.
The wind is picking up across the coastal area of western Greece, with Kefalonia airport reporting a 15 m/s south-easterly wind with gusts to 20 m/s at 1800 UTC. The southern Ionian islands of Kefalonia and Zakynthos will likely experience hurricane-force winds, with gusts likely in the 40-50 m/s (144-180 km/h) range, and possibly higher across the mountains. Winds of similar strength or only marginally weaker will be experienced along the coastline of the Gulf of Patras from Astakos via Patras to Pyrgos and possibly further south to Kyparissia.
A major risk with the cyclone are extreme amounts of precipitation and the attendant risk of flash flooding. Across large parts of the Peloponnese and Central Greece rainfall will exceed 200 mm, whereas near the cyclone's centre more than 400 mm may accumulate locally as it stalls near the Gulf of Patras. Another area at risk of extreme precipitation and flash floods are the eastern slopes of the Pindus mountains, where strong easterly upslope flow of humid air is expected, and result in accumulations around or above 400 mm in some areas.
Finally, a risk of tornadoes exists with embedded convective storms east and northeast of the cyclone centre. The area of highest storm-relative helicity in the 0-1 km layer has gradually shifted a bit northward in the latest model guidance. Hence the threat now seems highest in a wide area surrounding the Gulf of Patras.
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