Revision de ESTOFEX, esto comentan entre las 08 horas de hoy miercoles y hasta 24 horas despues...
Traduciendo, que es gerundio... se habla de Marruecos, ojo...Se espera que un potente jet del suroeste gire alrededor del flanco sur de la baja en altura de España y que avance hacia el Mediterraneo... el conjunto lleva asociado una fuerte cizalladura vertical (40 m/s) en el tramo 0-6 kms, 30 m/s en el tramo 0-3 kms, y 10 m/s en el tramo mas bajo, con viento del noreste... la masa de aire que nos ocupa se caracteriza por una capa muy humeda y sera advectada sobre la costa africana... por encima de la capa humeda los vientos del sur advectan una capa de "mezcla" en la zona, dando lugar a elevados valores de CIN y CAPE... durante el dia se espera que fuertes forzamientos tengan lugar, y no se que de convergencia en capas bajas...
Sin embargo, es cuestionable en estos momentos el comienzo de todo esto... se preve mejor potencial para tormentas sobre las montañas, y pueden extenderse hacia el norte durante la noche... habida cuenta de la fuerte cizalladura, son posibles supercelulas con granizo grande o muy grande, o severas o extremas rachas de viento... no son probables los tornados, pero las condiciones pueden ser favorables "in the range of outflow-boundaries", donde la "flotabilidad" en capas bajas y la cizalladura pueden ser fuertes, asi como en la region mediterranea y el sureste de Hispania, donde no se que se espera en niveles bajos... un factor limitante es la incertidumbre que presenta la masa de aire inestable...
Valid: Wed 16 Jul 2008 06:00 to Thu 17 Jul 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 15 Jul 2008 21:43
Forecaster: GATZEN
Northern Morocco, south-western Mediterranean
A strong south-westerly jet streak is expected to rotate around the southern flank of the Iberian cut-off and ejects into south-western Mediterranean during the period. It is associated with strong vertical wind shear reaching more that 40 m/s in the lowest 6 km, 30 m/s in the lowest 3 km and around 10 m/s in the lowest km given north-easterly surface winds. Affected air mass is characterized by rich boundary-layer moisture especially over the sea that is advected towards the African coast during the period. Above the boundary-layer, southerly winds advect hot elevated mixed layer into the area, leading to strong CIN and rather high CAPE values. During the day, expect that rather strong forcing will be present in the range of the jet streak and low-level convergence and upslope flow. However, initiation is questionable at this time over most of the area. Best potential for deep convection is forecast over the mountains, and thunderstorms may spread northward along the outflow-boundaries during the evening hours. Given strong vertical wind shear, supercells are likely capable of producing large or very large hail and severe or even extreme wind gusts. Tornadoes are not likely, but conditions may be favourable in the range of outflow-boundaries, where low-level buoyancy and shear may be strong as well as over the Mediterranean region and south-eastern Spain, where low-level veering profiles are expected. Limiting factor for Iberia is uncertainty of unstable air mass.