Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014

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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #12 en: Mircoles 04 Junio 2014 14:49:49 pm »
Muy buen recopilatorio!
Llama la atencion lo "lamentables" que somos, y no me cansar de decirlo, estamos a aos luz de muchos otros paises en cuanto a numero de tormentas y de rayos.

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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #13 en: Viernes 06 Junio 2014 00:46:38 am »
Sin ir ms lejos, a partir de maana y en los prximos das, existe la posibilidad que pueda "liarse parda" en Francia, Benelux y Alemania. Huele un tanto a "penacho ibrico" por aquellos lares.

Con algunos modelos en la mano a da de hoy, detalle, fundamentalmente, de la evolucin de CAPE y Lifted, as como del punto de roco en superficie. Ojo especialmente al da 9 de junio. Esto es lo que muestra nuestro tan "manido" wetterzentrale:
































Seguimos conociendo nuevos tornados en Europa del este, muy muy recientes:


4 junio 2014. Studenitsa, Ucrania (Fuente: http://vk.com/severeweatherru?w=wall-11570669_779) .






1 junio 2014.  Minsk, Bielorrusia (Fuente: http://vk.com/clubmeteo?w=wall-42886009_186607%2Fall).






« ltima modificacin: Viernes 06 Junio 2014 01:00:05 am por umulogenitus »

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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #14 en: Sbado 07 Junio 2014 12:48:02 pm »
Hablando del penacho ibrico (spanish plume), dejo este artculo elaborado precisamente para seguir este episodio:

http://rgsweather.com/2014/06/04/reigate-a-beginners-guide-to-the-spanish-plume/


Un saludo.
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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #15 en: Domingo 08 Junio 2014 14:34:12 pm »
Brutal granizada ayer en Bruselas, que obliga a suspender el partido Blgica - Tnez :o :o :o :o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x9VuEGrHcFA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIK9WopEivw

Saludos [emoji6]
Archidona (Mlaga) - 722 m.s.n.m. Vistame en: YouTube


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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #16 en: Domingo 08 Junio 2014 23:54:29 pm »
Por lo visto una potente superclula a rozado el norte de Pars en mitad de la noche. :cold: :cold:
Mańana seguramente tendremos material fotogrfico,ahora no encuentro nada.
Cieza,Murcia. 180msnm.

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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #17 en: Lunes 09 Junio 2014 02:05:05 am »
Se ha iniciado ms o menos a las 1700 Z y he visto ya fotillos de granizos (una de las piedras de 7-8 cm) y estructura.

Maana anunciado nivel 3 en Estofex.
Parabaraaaaa!

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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #18 en: Lunes 09 Junio 2014 08:07:34 am »
La primera clula la pude fotografiar desde Saint Germain de Laye, al oeste de Pars, me pas muy cerca.

En estos momentos de la maana acabamos de tener ya la primera tormenta del da, con fuerte actividad elctrica y lluvia intensa con algo de granizo.
Desde Pars-Saint Cloud. Oeste de la ciudad y zona ms elevada. 120 msnm.

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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #19 en: Lunes 09 Junio 2014 15:14:06 pm »
He visto imagenes espectaculares de la tormenta que pas cerca ayer de Paris, con granizo de 6 cm!
Era tremenda. Y hacia alli va una ahora gorda de nuevo!

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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #20 en: Lunes 09 Junio 2014 16:05:28 pm »
Esta madrugada ha cruzado el centro de Francia hacia el Benelux un gran SCM de sur a norte, y de cara al resto del da siguen los avisos.

Como habris visto muchos, los de ESTOFEX han cascado para esta jornada un nivel 3 en zonas de Francia y Benelux, con interesante discusin  :o:


Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 06:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 08 Jun 2014 22:31
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 3 was issued for NW France and BENELUX for very large hail, damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation.

A level 2 was issued for much of France and NW Germany mainly for very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for England mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued for E Germany and Poland mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Russia and Ukraine mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

In between of the deep low over the Atlantic and the ridge over Central Europe, strong southerly to southwesterly flow will advect hot airmass characterised by steep mid-level lapse rates from N Africa towards France, Germany and then around the ridge towards Poland. Potentially dangerous situation will evolve over France, BENELUX and NW Germany just ahead of the diffuse, wavy frontal boundary that will remain quasistationary close to French coastline during the most of the day. Another low will slowly dig SE-wards across NW Russia. Moderate to strong NW-ly flow is simulated at its southwestern flank. With prevailing low geopotentials over much of Eastern Europe, so scattered DMC is expected also there, albeit severe threat will be smaller than in case of France / BENELUX.

DISCUSSION

... France towards BENELUX and NW Germany ...

Very dangerous setup will develop over the region by the late afternoon hours. With pronounced overlap of low-level moisture and steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models agree on the development of high to extreme CAPE values, with Central France towards BENELUX and NW Germany having the highest odds of seeing 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the late evening. As 500 hPa winds between 15 to 25 m/s overlap with backed low-level flow thanks to the presence of the surface trough, strong DLS (20-25 m/s) is forecast. By the late evening, with the enhancement of the low-level wind field with deepening trough, SREH values will increase especially over NW France / BENELUX (with values over 300 m2/s2 possible). Such setup will be very conducive for intense supercells / bow-echoes, capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Towards the evening (beyond 18 UTC), as LLS strengthens, tornadoes will become a threat as well, especially if isolated supercells manage to persist into this time frame
.

However, models do not simulate any pronounced QG forcing to rapidly reduce CIN. This will, on one hand, allow for CAPE to build-up steadily towards the late afternoon. On the other hand, it is highly questionable how many storms will initiate and where exactly. There is considerable disagreement by individual models. Overnight / morning convection, along with the outflow boundaries laid by these may be crucial in this setup. Current thinking is, that the foci for late afternoon initiation will be NW France, along the surface convergence zone, with storms spreading into BENELUX. It is likely that these storms will be isolated supercells at first, with subsequent clustering resulting in a fast forward propagating bow-echo. Towards the night, Southern to Central France may see convective initiation, with another possiblity of MCS travelling north towards N France.

Level 3 was introduced for the region, where the highest probability of high storm coverage is forecast and where high density of extremely severe events is most likely. With that in mind, any spot in the Level 2 may see extremely severe storms in these highly favourable conditions, provided storms can initiate.

... England ...

Models show that somewhat warmer, moist airmass should advect over E England as the wave in the frontal boundary propagates towards northwest. However, edge of the EML plume should remain to the east, so that MLCAPE values will stay on the order of hundreds of J/kg. As strong flow ovespreads the region, over 25 m/s of DLS is forecast. All models agree on initiation along the lifting warm wave of the boundary. There will be a potential for isolated supercell development, which would be capable of large hail and severe wind gusts. However, lack of steep mid-level lapse rates may limit the hail threat, so that a high-end Lvl 1 instead of Lvl 2 is issued.

... Poland ...

As EML is advected around the ridge towards east, overlap with modest low-level moisture will contribute to the development of moderate instability, with MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Vertical wind shear should be moderate, between 10 to 15 m/s of bulk shear in the 0-6 km layer, increasing NEwards to between 14 and 20 m/s. Some strong multicells (or perhaps even brief supercells) may initiate along the ill-defined warm front with attendant threats of large hail and severe wind gusts.

... Russia ...

With the progressing cut-off low, a plume of steep lapse rates will be pushed southeastwards, but still, the extreme eastern part of the forecast area may see some stronger multicells capable of large hail and/or severe wind gusts. Wind shear should be weak to moderate, perhaps limiting the supercell threat (and very large hail risk).



Pero han sacado hace muy poco una discusin especial, algo que deben hacerlo excepcionalmente:

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 09 Jun 2014 10:00 to Tue 10 Jun 2014 15:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Jun 2014 09:48

Forecaster: PUCIK

Abundant DMC activity is already ongoing in the morning hours. Most of this activity is likely elevated with risk for large hail in the environment of steep lapse rates. The first cluster is now situated over Belgium moving towards Netherlands. Second one is located over NW France with similar movement direction. As daytime heating continues ahead of these clusters with easterly to southeasterly moist surface flow (dewpoints between 18 and 20 C), this activity may eventually become surface-based, especially at the eastern flank of the systems. That would rapidly increase chances for supercellular convection capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

To the east and south of the ongoing convective systems, diurnal heating along with backing low-level flow is observed. Further backing of the low-level flow is forecast as surface pressure falls over Southern France. Current thinking is that despite this early activity, best conditions will still develop by the late afternoon with high CAPE values and strong DLS.


« ltima modificacin: Lunes 09 Junio 2014 16:08:04 pm por umulogenitus »

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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #21 en: Lunes 09 Junio 2014 17:09:07 pm »
INCREBLE tormenta en Bremen (Alemania). Segn los detectores de rayos de Blitzortung, est soltando descargas a tierra a un ritmo de 114 rayos por 25km2 (extensin de 5x5 km) cada 10 minutos...   :cold: :cold: :cold:


PD: Ya son 120-152 rayos en 25km2 en 10 minutos al sur de Bremen... Vaya bestia parda...  :-X

« ltima modificacin: Lunes 09 Junio 2014 18:00:49 pm por gdvictorm »
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Re:Seguimiento de Sistemas Convectivos Severos en Europa 2014
« Respuesta #23 en: Lunes 09 Junio 2014 19:53:14 pm »
Menuda salvajada va por Spa (Belgica) rayos en tiempo real...

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime?lang=nl