Seguimiento general de sistemas tropicales. (Análisis, Modelos, Invests...)

Buenas  ya tenemos el invest 97 L. 

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)    Pressure      Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 11/3/09  10.0N  81.5W     25        1009       Invest





ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF COSTA
RICA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  ALTHOUGH SHOWER
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Haber si esta vez hay suerte tenemos por fin a Ida .

Por el  Pacifico tenemos el Invest 96 E desde hace unos días.

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)    Pressure      Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 11/4/09  11.1N  91.2W     25        1007       Invest
18 GMT 11/4/09  10.4N  91.8W     20        1008       Invest
00 GMT 11/5/09  12.0N  92.4W     25        1008       Invest
12 GMT 11/5/09  10.8N  92.5W     25        1008       Invest
18 GMT 11/5/09  10.8N  92.6W     25        1008       Invest

Además el Invest ha mejorado su organización y ya esta en nivel naranja. 




FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW IS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF THE
MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED...THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml


Además lo mejor de todo es que algunos modelos indican la trayectoria hacia el Atlántico.   .



En fin habrá que estar atentos por si acaso 

Ya tenemos nuevo seguimiento en el NHC



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 9 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
NNNN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Son restos de un sistema frontal, que veremos que desarrollo tienen, porque tenderán a interactuar con lo que quede de IDA, una vez esta emerga al Atlántico

 

Sigue el seguimiento, veremos como acaba la cosa



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Sigue el seguimiento, veremos como acaba la cosa



ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IDA...LOCATED ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA.

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH
AND AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE
NNNN

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Buen seguimiento. 

Por cierto ya es oficial tenemos al Invest 98 L

 Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)    Pressure      Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 11/10/09  24.7N  61.3W     30        1009       Invest

Haber si hay suerte y tenemos a Joaquin   

No es por nada, pero la convección de la parte sur del Invest 98L, con sus 30kt y 1009mb, está dejando somanta de agua en las Islas de Sotavento Norte y las de Barlovento...

No es nada tropical, sino un sistema frontal adherido al centro de la baja extratropical

 

Ahora si que si, está en camino la primera Tormenta Tropical de la temporada, sin descartar que salga el primer ciclón. Hay unanimidad en el primer punto, en todos los modelos



Tampoco hay que descartar que para la parte oriental del Índico S salga un sistema con nombre de esta perturbación

 

Entramos en fase activa de la MJO por el oceano Índico, asi que es de suponer que tanto el hemisferio sur como el norte, registrará movimiento tropical

Por el Índico N, con un mes largo de temporada oficial por delante, puede acabar registrando actividad en Bengala. SST alta y OHC favorable lo confirman






Por el Índico S, porque la temporada ha empezado con el mes de Noviembre. Obviamente es muy pronto, pero siempre es tiempo de formación de ciclones tropicales, si MJO-SST-OHC es favorable





Los largos plazos de ECMWF y GFS favorecen la primera de las situaciones. ECMWF, CMC, GFS, UKMO y NOGAPS apuestan por la segunda situación de aqui a 4 días aprox.

 

Predicciones de Bureau para su temporada

Average to below average tropical cyclone activity expected for the Australia region

Based on the current climate status in tropical areas, the Australian region tropical cyclone (TC) outlook for 2009/10 suggests average to below average TC activity. Likewise, average to below average TC numbers are also likely in each of the Western, Eastern and Northern Australian TC subregions

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/tc.html

Temporada por debajo de la media en todas su cuencas



 

Con fase activa de la MJO, sobre el Índico, parece que habrá sucesión de perturbaciones (invest) por Bengala de cara a estos próximos días-semanas. Veremos si alguno tiene desarrollo

Por otra parte, ECMWF en largo plazo, barrunta Tifón frente a Filipinas (7-10 días). GFS en mismos plazos no ve nada. CMC parece intuir algo en la zona en su parte final del periodo que alcanza

Por el HS, parece que habrá calma despues del sorprendete ANJA (Cat. 4 nada más y nada menos) Por las cercanías de Australia, paz