En la discursión destaca sobre todo, Anticiclón de altura sobre el sistema, que le da buen flujo de salida, pero se está configurando una zona de aire seco al W y SW del sistema, que mientras permanezca cuasiestacionario, no tendrá que luchar contra estas condiciones adversas. Por lo pronto, tiene a su favor amplia circulación y la convección alrededor de su centro aumenta lenta pero progresivamente.
Saludos.

94LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-163N-778W



Solo HWRF como dinámico, y NOGAPS como global "serio", apuestan por su desarrollo claro

Mucho aire seco al W...

El EPAC también existe 

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A FEW DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

Aguasss!!!

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN

Empatadas las dos ....  



Y un poquito más al norte.... 

Loop

Bonita formación al Oeste de California, ¿no? 

Tenemos nuevo invest en el EPAC 

EP, 91, 2011060418,   , BEST,   0, 106N,  982W,  25, 1008, DB

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JAMAICA. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR FAVORABLE...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
APPEARS TO BE LIMITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
DISORGANIZED LOW CENTER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND JAMAICA AS THE LOW MOVES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
   

   
Eastern Pacific


1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO
MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

EPAC

UN SISTEMA AMPLIO DE BAJA PRESION LOCALIZADO CERCA DE 150 MILLAS AL
SUROESTE DE JAMAICA ESTA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH.
ACTIVIDAD DE TRONADAS HA AUMENTADO Y SE HA ORGANIZADO UN POCO
MEJOR...MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO SUPERFICIAL. ALGO DE
DESARROLLO GRADUAL DE ESTE SISTEMA ES POSIBLE EN LOS PROXIMOS DIAS A
MEDIDA QUE LOS VIENTOS EN LOS NIVELES MEDIOS DE LA ATMOSFERA SE
TORNAN MAS FAVORABLES. EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD MEDIANA...30 POR
CIENTO...DE QUE ESTE DISTURBIO SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON TROPICAL
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS. AUN CUANDO NO SE DESARROLLE...LLUVIAS
FUERTES PODRIAN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
LODO SOBRE PORCIONES DE HAITI Y JAMAICA A MEDIDA QUE LA BAJA PRESION
SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE O NORTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS VARIOS
DIAS.
-  & 91E Actualmente con 40%

El GFS lo sigue mandando a Cuba y este a su vez con un aspecto más amenazante.

Loop



Por el momento toda la convección centrada al E muy alejada del LLCC.

Nivel Rojo para 91E



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