Aviso especial del NHC después de que el avión cazahuracanes investigara el disturbio Tropical sobre el SE del Golfo de México a principio de esta tarde.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND
WINDS OF GALE FORCE...BUT NO EVIDENCE OF A CENTER OF CIRCULATION
NEAR THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN
Resumiendo, que el avión encontró vientos de Tormenta Tropical pero ninguna evidencia de circulación en o cerca del área covectiva y por ende y dadas las condiciones existentes en la alta atmósfera no hay muchos chances de que puede covertirse en un ciclón tropical, no obstante, continuarán las lluvias intensas y vientos de tormenta tropical sobre el norte de Yucatán, occidente de Cuba y Sur de la Florida por lo menos un día mas.
Saludos