Seguimiento general de sistemas tropicales. (Análisis, Modelos, Invests...)

 

Bajo vigilancia este gran disturbio situado en el Salomon Sea ( Norte del Mar del Coral ). En teoría tendría que descender paralelo a la costa de Queensland.... pero estoy dudando si se va con dirección Sur o es el Bicho que los modelos ven desarrollándose en las inmediaciones del Mar de Arafura o Golfo de Carpentaria .....  De momento producto Monzonico.

92PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-136S-1581E





 

Bureau se pronuncia :

Mar del Coral

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Brisbane

Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea
Issued at 1:45pm EST on Monday the 19th of December 2011 and valid until end of
Thursday

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
A low situated southeast of Papua New Guinea is moving in a south-southwesterly
direction and is expected to develop further over the next couple of days. The
low is expected to remain offshore and not affect the Queensland coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
 
Tuesday:  Low
Wednesday:High
Thursday: High

Golfo de Carpentaria

Potential Cyclones:
There are no significant tropical lows in the Region. A weak monsoon trough has
developed near the north coast of the Top End, and a low pressure system is
expected to form in the next two to three days. This low may develop further as
the monsoon trough moves north into the Arafura Sea.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:

Tuesday:  Very low.
Wednesday:  Low.
Thursday: Moderate.

 

Ambiente super favorable para un desarrollo bastante severo , el único factor a tener en cuenta será su cercanía a tierra.

Ultimo Visible





 

Se esta organizando rápidamente y la convección profunda se generaliza en su centro. Por lo que la marina ya comienza a seguir a este disturbio situado al norte de Nueva Caledonia , NE australiano y Sur de Noumea.

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.8S 157.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALDEONIA. A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AT THE EQUATORIAL TAIL OF THE
SOUTHERN PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT. A 191050Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATED THE LLCC IS WELL
ORGANIZED AND SYMMETRIC. THE 191200Z PGTW GRADIENT LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS A WELL-DEVELOPED SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FIELD ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL AID IN SUSTAINING THE
CYCLONIC ROTATION. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LLCC. THE LLCC EXISTS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH 31 DEGREE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MOVEMENT TO THE
SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO A REGION OF SHARPLY
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

 

Tenemos Invest para el disturbio que en estos momento se esta gestando en el Mar de Arafura.

94SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-124S-1338E



 

Díos 

Llevo años queriendo ver esto ......... 

Un sistema criado en el Mar de Arafura y en vez de coger dirección SW... Se vaya para el infierno del Mar de Carpentaria.



Por favor que suceda .... 

96SINVEST.15kts-NAmb-80S-940E

Posibilidad de generación de un potente ciclón a partir del disturbio 96S , con dirección Reunión.



 

Posibilidad de formación de una Tormenta Tropical en los próximos e inmediatos días , en aguas del Canal de Mozambique y posteriormente meterse por las costas de dicho país.

 

Posibilidad de formación de una Tormenta Tropical en los próximos e inmediatos días , en aguas del Canal de Mozambique y posteriormente meterse por las costas de dicho país.

Los americanos lo mandan para las costas occidentales de Madagascar al igual que el europeo.



Muy justa va a ir la cosa.

 

Cita de: Hardstyle en Domingo 01 Enero 2012 19:30:19 pm

Posibilidad de formación de una Tormenta Tropical en los próximos e inmediatos días , en aguas del Canal de Mozambique y posteriormente meterse por las costas de dicho país.

Los americanos lo mandan para las costas occidentales de Madagascar al igual que el europeo.



Muy justa va a ir la cosa.

 

Sin seguimiento por los americanos , los gabachos  ,madagascarienses......   



Lo mismo estoy viendo visiones ..... 

 

Tenemos nuevo Invest en el Índico.....En el Canal de Mozambique.

99SINVEST.20kts-1007mb-152S-430E.100

 

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
42.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 43.0E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT REGION,
WITH LOW (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LLCC LIES
DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING AMPLE DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. A 051523Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SIGNS OF
SOME SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM FAIRLY AGGRESSIVELY BETWEEN TAU 24
AND TAU 48. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION REMAIN FAVORABLE
AT APPROXIMATELY 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

El tema va bien ligerito.