Nueva área con espectativas de desarrollo, pegada a las costas del NW australiano, con el nivel de MEDIUM95SINVEST.25kts-1002mb-130S-1279E
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5S
129.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS THE FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DEEPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
A RECENT OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED BUT WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CORE AND 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. DARWIN RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED
BUT FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS ALSO
EVIDENT IN A 240050Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, THE SAME STR IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT
SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN FAVORABLE
(28 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED
CONVECTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.