Seguimiento general de sistemas tropicales. (Análisis, Modelos, Invests...)

Buenas noches.
Comienza el "movimiento" en el Pacífico Este, con los Invest 91E y 92E. Y cuidado con este último, porque los diagramas de fase preveen un buen "bicho", por las favorables condiciones con que parte de salida.

1. A nearly-stationary area of low pressure located about 1600 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms well east of the
circulation center.  Significant development of this system appears
unlikely due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles
south of the coast of Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form after mid-week while the
system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi

Hoy es día 1 de Junio. Comienza oficialmente la temporada atlántica, aunque lo hace ya con un sistema nombrado prematuramente. Ojo que la primera parte de este mes viene con cosas interesantes en las cuencas del Hemisferio Norte.

Atlántico: Posible desarrollo subtropical de cara al Jueves-Fin de semana en la zona de Bermuda y Carolinas.

EPAC: Andres como Categoría 4 ahora mismo, Blanca en desarrollo garantizado, y de cara a finales de esta semana y principios de la que viene, aparición de Carlos pronosticada por los dos grandes modelos en la zona del sur de Manzanillo.

Mar Arábigo: Posible desarrollo en la zona de Oman o India de cara al fin de semana.

Ojo con el Pacífico Este que comienza a todo tren.

 

Ligero "batiburrillo" se ha formado al W del Mar Caribe y el NHC ya lo está siguiendo con floater propio y todo. Movimiento lento y algo confuso de este sistemita, según se ve en los diagramas de fase.

AGUACEROS Y TRONADAS HAN AUMENTADO A TRAVES DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR
CARIBE Y LAS AREAS TERRALES ADYACENTES EN ASOCIACION CON UNA VAGUADA
QUE SE HA DESARROLLADO RECIENTEMENTE EN LA SUPERFICIE. SE ANTICIPA
QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE MUEVA A TRAVES DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN MAS
TARDE HOY Y SOBRE EL SUROESTE DEL GOLFO DE MEXICO PARA TARDE MANANA.
LAS CONDICIONES AMBIENTALES PODRIAN APOYAR UN DESARROLLO LENTO DE
ESTE SISTEMA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS MIENTRAS SE MUEVE
GENERALMENTE HACIA EL NOROESTE.
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 48 HORAS...BAJA...20 POR CIENTO
* PROBABILIDAD DE DESARROLLO HASTA 5 DIAS...BAJA...30 POR CIENTO

PRONOSTICADOR CANGIALOSI/BLAKE

Código NARANJA para el 91-L. En cuanto llegue al ROJO, porque puede saltar "la liebre", abrimo topic.

A broad area of low pressure over northern Belize and the Yucatan
peninsula is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and
winds to near gale force over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Environmental conditions should support some development of this
system when it moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by
tomorrow night and across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico through
Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible over
the Yucatan peninsula during the next day or so.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

Parece que la única zona del mundo con actividad tropical a corto plazo va a ser la zona del Mar de la China.



Por el resto de cuencas no se esperan desarrollos, tanto a corto como a medio plazo.

Aunque sea un producto "cuasimonzónico", cuidado con éste, que su aspecto mejora por momentos.

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.8N 67.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 304 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT 210201Z
WINDSAT SHOWS A 15 TO 20 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH A FEW 25 KNOT WIND
BARBS ON THE WESTERN QUADRANTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG (UP TO GALE FORCE) WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW IN THE ARABIAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EASTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 992 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

Buenas.
Comienza a haber de nuevo algo de movimiento sobre el Pacífico Oeste, con tres sistemas a la vista, aunque de momento, el que más fácil lo tiene es el 95-W, aunque mirando los diagramas de fase, no está la cosa muy clara.

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.9S 161.1E TO 5.9S 157.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 300000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 4.2S 160.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.3S
161.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2S 160.8E, APPROXIMATELY 875 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OF
THIS SYSTEM. ALSO A RECENT (292226Z) METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS THAT
A SOLID LLCC HAS DEVELOPED WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS AND THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT, WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
THE 15-20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VWS IS CURRENTLY HAMPERING OVERALL
DEVELOPMENT. ADDITIONALLY, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

El Pacífico está que arde.

Pacífico Oeste



Pacífico Central



Pacífico Este



8 sistemas en seguimiento 

Trayectorias de los principales sistemas a los que seguimos y hemos seguido la pista hasta el momento.

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system has moved off of the east coast
of the United States and is located about 70 miles east of Cape
Hatteras, North Carolina. Although showers and thunderstorms have
become concentrated near the center of the low, environmental
conditions are expected to only be marginally conducive for
development of a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next
day or so while the low moves eastward and then northeastward away
from the United States.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart