Aqui estamos de nuevo con el último boletin del SPC recien sacado del horno.
Y madre mia como viene; situación potencialmente peligrosa para la costa Este americana debido a la severidad de los fenómenos que podrían producirse y agravado porque esa zona no son las despobladas planicies...
Podría afectar a zonas como las áreas metropolitanas de Philadelphia (alrededor de 6 millones de habitantes) Wasinghton (más de 5 millones), Pittsburgh (más de 2 millones ), Richmond (más de 1 millon)...
Ojala que la situación no se complique más de lo debido y no haya que lamentar desgracias.
La discusión viene cargadita...
...MID-ATLANTIC/UPPER OH VALLEY/CAROLINAS...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
SWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED TODAY MOVING EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS.
A BAND OF WELL-FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
THE TROUGH WHICH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING SWD FROM ERN OH INTO FAR ERN KY. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EWD
INTO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT WILL ALSO GAIN ACCESS TO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON...THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RAMP UP
IN INTENSITY WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING.
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS ERN NC...ERN VA AND MD... MESOANALYSIS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE AND SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
APPROACHING 70 F. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE WITH 0-3 KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITIES AROUND 250 M2/S2 SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS AND TORNADOES. A TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS THE STORMS INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM SCNTRL PA EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS NRN VA AND MD AS THE
LINE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS PA AND MD AS THE STRONGEST BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
APPROACHES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL
JETS IS ALSO FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS NRN VA...MD AND PA WHICH MAY
ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE QLCS TORNADO THREAT. HAVE ADDED A MODERATE
RISK IN THE WASHINGTON DC METRO...BALTIMORE AREAS WHERE THE TORNADO
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE GREATEST AND WHERE AN ISOLATED STRONG
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ANY ROTATING STORMS SHOULD ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. AS THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
MOVES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC EARLY THIS EVENING...A WELL-ORGANIZED
LINEAR MCS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE FEATURE
WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT PRESENT ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN IN AREAS TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS ALREADY
SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND MODEL FORECASTS DO DEVELOP A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ERN CAROLINAS SHOW 0-6
KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP THIS
AFTERNOON...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A LINE OF STORMS
FORMING JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST.