ATCF

L, 96, 2009110112,   , BEST,   0, 316N,  531W,  45kt,  998mb, DB,  34, NEQ

Dvorak

01/1145 UTC   31.6N     53.1W        ST2.5           INVEST -- Atlantic  

NHC

UN CENTRO DE BAJA PRESION NO TROPICAL CON VIENTOS DE GALERNA ESTA
LOCALIZADO A UNAS 850 MILLAS AL ESTE-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. ESTA BAJA
PRESION LENTAMENTE HA ADQUIRIDO CARACTERISTICAS SUBTROPICALES
MIENTRAS COMIENZA A MOVERSE HACIA EL NOROESTE Y LUEGO HACIA EL NORTE
DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. EXISTE UNA LEVE PROBABILIDAD...MENOS DE
30 POR CIENTO...DE QUE ESTE SISTEMA SE CONVIERTA EN UN CICLON SUB
TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.





IDA está cerca

SHIPS le concede 24 horas sobre SST de 23-25ºC, con cizalladura en torno a 15-30kt

Tiene que darse prisa, porque pasadas esas 24 horas, escapará a latitudes medias

yo si creo que la nombren...eso si, va a andar muy justa...


a ver si tiene suerte...
sería la novena nombrada de la temporada, si no me falla la memoria

buen seguimiento
pd:siento si no sale la animación...

cuidadin din din....



aunque no se...

''96L is looking very photogenic, but is still extratropical. With 25C SSTs and plenty of thunderstorms firing up at the center, it will start to warm its core today, and will be a hybrid system by Monday. Whether it will cross the ill-defined magical line that causes it to be named "Ida" remains improbable at present, but it tough to forecast the thinking of the forecasters at NHC sometimes.''

Jeff Masters

que opinais?

 



es esto no?

El diagrama es claro, de momento el nucleo no es semicálido, pero según los loops parece que intenta hacerlo

Codigo naranja   




ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST
OF BERMUDA.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER SINCE YESTERDAY AND THIS LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
NORTHWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM... REFER TO
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Mejora el aspecto y aumenta la convección cerca del centro. Creo que va a tener su oportunidad.

grace ''revival'' totalmente...
Henri era muchismo menos que ésto...y Danny ya ni hablamos

la estructura a primera vista es muy similar a la de Grace.




en el próximo parte tendremos a Ida, a eso de las 2:00, si no es antes...

no es oficial aún...pero viendo éste código rojo creo que el nhc tiene claro el nombramiento....
la técnica Herbert-Poteat dice 45 nudos...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 1 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
THE CENTER OF A NON-TROPICAL GALE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF
BERMUDA. THE LOW APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING SOME SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...
IT COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN



noche larga va a ser...

yo no se que pasa...nadie dice nada en ningún sitio...ni aqui, ni en los foros americanos, ni en el blog de jeff masters

la veo peor que antes, eso si.


Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)    Pressure      Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
12 GMT 11/1/09  31.6N  53.1W     45         998       Invest
18 GMT 11/1/09  32.7N  55.4W     50         998       Invest

ya queda nada para el parte del NHC....va con retraso a partir de ahora mismo...(creo, por que eran las 2 horas de verano... )