Buen sistema el que se presenta justo al Este de Filipinas y que ha dado un buen repunte en las últimas horas, tanto que el JTWC acaba de lanzar alerta por formación tropical.
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 126.5E TO 18.3N 119.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
252330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N
126.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 30 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N
133.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2 126.2E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION
INDICATES PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. A 251926z 91GHZ SSMIS PASS INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION THAT HAS NOT COMPLETELY CLOSED OFF ON THE SOUTHERN
FLANK, LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR
OUTFLOW THAT MAY IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM NEARS A MID-LATITUDE JET.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE A LIGHT 10-15 KNOTS. GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM QUICKLY IF
THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN ENOUGH FOR THE CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE AROUND
THE LLCC. GLOBAL MODELS ONLY INDICATE A WEAK CIRCULATION MOVING INTO
LUZON IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WTIHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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