Uy, uy, uy,............
18WJELAWAT.90kts-956mb-121N-1287E

CitarUy, uy, uy,............ 

TY 18W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS WITH A 45 KNOT INCREASE (55 TO 100 KNOTS)

Cita de: Hardstyle en Domingo 23 Septiembre 2012 02:55:00 AM
Mañana puede que sea todo un mínimo categoría 3. 

100 KT por lo que Categoría 3 y sigue intensificándose de manera rápida y virulenta. Pico de intensidad máxima elevado a 130 KT, por lo que podemos estar ante el segundo Supertifón de la temporada en el W.PAC...



Bestial 

DATE     TIME    LAT     LON    CLASSIFICATION   ID   NAME
20120923   0832    12.3  -128.7     T6.5/6.5       18W  JELAWAT



A ver que pasa con la Onda Tropical que tiene justo detrás, pues le puede entorpecer...

TY 18W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PRESENT OVER
ASIA AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (93W)
LOCATED ABOUT 650NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.



Tiene unas 36 horas para crecer todo lo que quiera, a partir de de entonces cabe esperar un incremento ligero de la cizalladura (W) y pendientes de cuando pueda iniciarse un ciclo de reemplazo, el cual haría que bajara de intensidad, pero por el momento... fuera de control.


     

Categoría 4
18WJELAWAT.115kts-937mb-125N-1290E

Impresionante... De Tormenta Tropical a Categoría 4 en menos de 12 horas señores 

Dvorak

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 928.1mb/134.8kt

La Agencia de Meteorología de Japón se manifiesta y lo lleva a la Categoría 5

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TYPHOON JELAWAT (T1217)
21:00 PM JST September 23 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Jelawat (925 hPa) located at 12.7N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 14.7N 128.5E - 105 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 17.2N 128.2E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 19.4N 127.9E - 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines

CitarTabla de vientos: no utilizan la escala Saffir-Simpson, sino que basan la medición de los vientos con una media de 10 minutos en el caso de la agencia japonesa, y la medición con una media de 1 minuto (similar a la utilizada en el Pacífico oriental y central, asi como en el Atlántico) en el caso de los americanos

A la espera del boletín numero 13 por parte del JTWC.

La marina eleva vientos a 120 KT

La marina lo hace oficial y sube vientos de Jelawat a 120 KT. Están emitiendo a cuenta gotas el boletín número 13, y de momento podemos disponer mapa de trayectoria e intensidad, en el cual elevan el pico máximo previsto a 140 KT e intuyen  un viraje de Jelawat mucho más pronunciado al noroeste, por lo que Taiwan tendría que estar muy pendiente del sistema.



A la espera del Prognostic Reasoning

CitarWDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 18W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A 65 KNOT INCREASE (55 TO 120 KNOTS)
AND, BASED ON ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY, HAS ALSO
COMPLETED A SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP FROM 07Z TO 09Z. ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY POLEWARD, THE TRACK MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN
VERY ERRATIC AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS MAY BE SIGNALING
ANOTHER LOOP. IR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
A 10NM ROUND EYE AND STRONG SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 (115 KNOTS) TO T6.5 (127 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES/RJTD, RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE SMALL EYE
EVIDENT IN IR. TY 18W REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX, WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT RESULTING FROM THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING PRESENT
OVER ASIA AND THE PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (93W)
LOCATED ABOUT 695NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE 23/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WESTERN
JAPAN AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO EASTERN CHINA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
REASONING MESSAGE. DUE TO THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, THE
PEAK INTENSITY IS NOW 140 KNOTS AT TAU 24.
   B. TY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 36
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) TO THE EAST. AS 93W TRACKS NORTHWARD, THE NER IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TY 18W, PROVIDING A
NORTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND THE STR WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL ALLOW TY 18W TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN
UNSTABLE WITH LARGE SHIFTS IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM RUN-TO-RUN.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A 300NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 WITH TWO
DISTINCT MODEL GROUPINGS. THE EASTERN GROUP, COMPOSED OF UKMO, WBAR
AND JGSM, INDICATES A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE WESTERN GROUP,
COMPOSED OF GFDN, ECMWF, NOGAPS, ECMWF AND GFS, FAVORS A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF MODEL SOLUTIONS; HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH A
SPREAD SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. TY 18W IS EXPECTED TO
PEAK NEAR TAU 24 AND SHOULD SEE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS POLEWARD FLOW WEAKENS.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS REMAIN CLUSTERED IN
TWO GROUPS AND DIVERGE FURTHER WITH A 635NM SPREAD. THE JTWC
FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE WESTERN GROUP OF SOLUTIONS, WHICH
INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN WITH A RE-CURVE POINT
EAST OF TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 120, TY 18W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE TOWARD
OKINAWA IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK INTO EASTERN CHINA AFTER TAU 96. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ISSUES.//
NNNN

Gracias por la animación Dani 

Jelawat vuelve a aumentar su fuerza y cada vez más cerca de alcanzar la Categoría reina.

130 KT



Parece ser que se va a quedar encajonado por el gran bloqueo anticiclónico que hay por Asia, y debido al desarrollo del 93W por el oeste... muy posible acabe en Japón.