Pues mientras acá andamos de vacaciones hay un tremendo "bicho" suelto en las aguas del Pacifico Occidental.
Tifón NORU con vientos máximos sostenidos de 125 KTs (230 Km/h) sistema anular con un gran ojo que se mueve lentamente con dirección al sur de Japón que aunque debe debilitarse algo llegará aun como un gran sistema.
WDPN31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR
44//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO
TO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ANNULAR
SYSTEM LACKING ANY BANDING FEATURES WITH A WELL-DEFINED 15-NM EYE.
THE STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST SIX HOURS BUT CLOUD
TOPS HAVE BEGUN WARMING. A 310821Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE UNIFORM RING OF DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0
TO T6.5 (115 TO 127 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
VERY FAVORABLE WITH A POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM AND A STRONG
EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET AND TUTT
CELL TO THE EAST. SSTS ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE AROUND 29 TO 30C. STY
07W IS DRIFTING WESTWARD WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
FROM RIDGES TO THE NORTH, WEST AND SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 07W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS AS THE SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND THE NORTHERN RIDGE
RETREATS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL PERSIST
AND SSTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 29 AND 30 CELSIUS. TY IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT EXHAUSTS MOST OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FROM THE WARM WATER. BEYOND TAU 36 A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL ERODE THE NORTHERN RIDGE AND INTRODUCE A DEGREE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN TO
100 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 36 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS BEING THE EASTERN OUTLIER.
BEYOND TAU 36 MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
THE NORTHERN RIDGE.
C. AROUND TAU 72, THE TROUGH WILL HAVE PASSED AND THE NORTHERN
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK HALTING THE NORTHWARD ADVANCE OF STY
07W AND THE TRACK WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THIS TIME. THE
EXACT POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TURN DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE SPEED
AND STRENGTH OF THE PASSING TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE THE STRENGTH
AND ORIENTATION OF THE NORTHERN STEERING RIDGE. STY 07W WILL BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AGAIN AROUND TAU 96 TO 120 AS THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE COMPETES WITH THE NORTHERN RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IMPROVING BUT STILL SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN POSSIBLE TRACK
SCENARIOS. OVERALL, THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST
SCENARIO BUT THE SEPARATION BETWEEN TRACK POSITIONS AT TAU 120 IS
ABOUT 480 NM. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE UKMET AND THE JAPANESE MODELS WHICH
SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS DUE TO THE NORTHERN
RIDGE ORIENTING ITSELF ON AN EAST-WEST AXIS. THE EXTENDED MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTIONS NOTED ABOVE
THAT STY 07W WILL NOT KEEP TRACKING WESTWARD, BUT RATHER TURN TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST BEYOND TAU 120 AS ANOTHER TROUGH ENTERS THE
REGION, AGAIN ERODING THE NORTHERN RIDGE, AND ALLOWING THE
SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE TO ASSUME STEERING. DUE TO THE LARGE DEGREE OF
COMPLEXITY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
Pues señor Tifón, la discusión del JWTC lo único claro que tiene es que hay tifón para varios días.
Saludos
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