Huracán DANIELLE Categoría 4 (06L Islas C.V. - MDR - Atlántico Medio)

El aspecto de Danielle ahora mismo es auténticamente extratropical.



Los modelos ven una intensificación importante pero supongo que será en su transición a borrasca extratropical.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 301449
TCDAT1
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010
1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO
SUBSIDE...WITH THE REMAINING COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 4.0...OR 65 KT.
SIMILARLY...TWO AMSU MEASUREMENTS OF THE WARM CORE ALSO SUGGESTED
70-75 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE EARLIER THIS MORNING.
FINALLY...SHIP WCZ5528 AT 13Z REPORTED 64 KT WINDS...974 MB
PRESSURE...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 52 FEET. DANIELLE
REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.

DANIELLE IS IN THE MIDST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND INDEED THE
ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44140 IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE VARIOUS GLOBAL
MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC FORCING ARRIVES THIS
EVENING.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER TRANSITION
WITH PEAK INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KT.  THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH
SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS.  A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYS THREE AND
FOUR IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FIVE.  THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER
PROVIDED POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE
EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF DANIELLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/1500Z 40.9N  50.7W    65 KT
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 41.9N  47.7W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 43.4N  41.2W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36HR VT     01/0000Z 46.0N  31.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48HR VT     01/1200Z 48.0N  24.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     02/1200Z 53.0N  21.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96HR VT     03/1200Z 61.5N  38.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG






Trayectoria prevista.





    Tracking Info For Hurricane Danielle     
        
 

 Time             Lat   Lon   Wind(mph)  Pressure  Storm type
------------------------------------------------------------------------
21 GMT 08/21/10  11.0N 32.1W     30       1008     Tropical Depression
03 GMT 08/22/10  11.3N 32.6W     35       1008     Tropical Depression
09 GMT 08/22/10  12.1N 33.4W     35       1007     Tropical Depression
15 GMT 08/22/10  12.7N 34.1W     35       1007     Tropical Depression
21 GMT 08/22/10  13.4N 35.1W     40       1005     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/23/10  14.2N 35.9W     50       1000     Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/23/10  14.8N 37.1W     60        997     Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/23/10  15.1N 39.4W     65        994     Tropical Storm
21 GMT 08/23/10  15.4N 41.5W     75        987     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/24/10  15.6N 43.2W     85        982     Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/24/10  15.9N 44.6W    100        973     Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/24/10  16.6N 46.5W     80        985     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/24/10  17.5N 48.2W     70        993     Tropical Storm
03 GMT 08/25/10  18.2N 49.8W     75        990     Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/25/10  18.8N 51.0W     85        982     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/25/10  19.6N 52.3W     85        982     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/25/10  21.2N 53.1W     85        982     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/26/10  22.4N 54.1W    100        975     Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/26/10  23.4N 54.9W    105        968     Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/26/10  24.4N 55.9W    105        970     Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/26/10  25.2N 57.0W    110        968     Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/27/10  25.8N 57.6W    110        965     Category 2 Hurricane
06 GMT 08/27/10  26.2N 58.1W    120        955     Category 3 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/27/10  26.5N 58.7W    135        946     Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/27/10  26.9N 59.8W    135        946     Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/27/10  27.3N 60.3W    135        942     Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/28/10  28.1N 60.6W    135        942     Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/28/10  28.6N 61.0W    110        950     Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/28/10  29.3N 60.5W    110        950     Category 2 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/28/10  30.3N 59.7W    105        970     Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/29/10  31.5N 58.8W    105        958     Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/29/10  33.2N 57.3W     90        972     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/29/10  35.5N 55.5W     85        976     Category 1 Hurricane
21 GMT 08/29/10  38.0N 54.5W     80        977     Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/30/10  39.3N 53.0W     80        980     Category 1 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/30/10  40.4N 52.0W     75        984     Category 1 Hurricane
15 GMT 08/30/10  40.9N 50.7W     75        970     Category 1 Hurricane

Corroborado.

29/2345 UTC 38.4N 53.9W EXTRATROPICAL DANIELLE -- Atlantic



 

La cara de muerto que puso el ojo antes de extinguirse es curiosa. Disculpen el morbo...

DANIELLE desciende a Tormenta Tropical, y mantiene el estatus tropical en base al manchurron de convección sobre el N del centro. Asi lo dice el NHC

THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE
YESTERDAY AND RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE

El NHC emite el último aviso sobre DANIELLE 

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

Adios Danielle 


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Esta fue su trayectoria.

Con tanta tormenta nadie se ha dado cuenta de que exDANIELLE está a tiro piedra de la Península

El ex-Danielle, no sólo ha pasado a tiro de piedra de nosotros, sino que está contribuyendo a abrir y mantener el "pasillo"/vaguada, que nos lanzará el próximo temporal de lluvias a la península.
De momento, con la energía que le queda, ha contribuído decisivamente -casi siempre, en esta fechas, tiene que ser la fuerza de un ex-ciclón la que de el vuelco- a las actuales lluvias en el Norte.  En muchos sitios del Pre-Pirineo, que han cerrado agosto con dos litros, lo agradecen, porque saben muy bien que las colas de frentes de las borrascas "anglo-normandas" que han cruzado en agosto, no habían tenido fuerza ni para hacerles un poco de sombra.