Tormenta Tropical HARVEY (08L Belize/México)

1. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO
FALL NEAR THE DISTURBANCE AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND EASTERN YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

..... y suben al 80 % ....

Saludos  

Outflow

El avión cazahuracanes encargado de investigar al sistema, ha tenido que volver a su base por problemas mecánicos. 

El avión cazahuracanes encargado de investigar al sistema, ha tenido que volver a su base por problemas mecánicos. 

Y justo por ello aun no tenemos un upgradeo, la 93L luce desde la mañana como al menos depresión, claro esta que es un sistema pequeño y al parecer aun lucha con algo de aire seco.

Saludos 

AL, 08, 2011081900,   , BEST,   0, 154N,  815W,  30, 1006, TD,

Último parte del NHC

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
HONDURAS...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

Mmm, cuidadito...

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION
FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED ABOUT
35 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY.

El centro está sobre el Mar Caribe, y empieza a consolidarse

Puede que en el próximo parte ya tengamos Tormenta tropical   

000
URNT12 KNHC 191417
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE   AL082011
A. 19/13:57:30Z
B. 16 deg 04 min N
  083 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1459 m
D. 35 kt
E. 356 deg 17 nm
F. 103 deg 40 kt
G. 354 deg 42 nm
H. 1005 mb
I. 15 C / 1538 m
J. 20 C / 1526 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0308A CYCLONE            OB 17
MAX FL WIND 40 KT N QUAD 13:44:20Z
;

Mmmm........no se por qué, pero tengo la impresión de que si el centro lo han reubicado 35 millas, más al NE de la posición, coja la energía suficiente como para atravesar la Península de Yucatán y salir al GOM. Y ya sabemos lo que ha pasado otras veces cuando ha tomado este camino.
Saludos.

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION JUST BELOW
TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR OR LESS AND TO REACH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KT NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL IN BELIZE

Pico de 45kt antes de tocar tierra en Belize. Veremos...