Ciclón Tropical ANGGREK Categoría 2 (Tormenta Tropical 02S S.S-Indonesia)

El JTWC lanzó alerta, y desde el BOM, ya siguen al sistema, con un pico de Ciclón Tropical Cat. 3





FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 30/1800:  8.0S  95.3E:     050 [095]:  045  [085]:  993
+24: 31/0600:  8.4S  95.1E:     070 [130]:  055  [100]:  986
+36: 31/1800:  9.0S  95.5E:     105 [195]:  065  [120]:  980
+48: 01/0600:  9.8S  96.1E:     140 [260]:  075  [140]:  972
+60: 01/1800: 10.6S  96.4E:     180 [335]:  080  [150]:  967
+72: 02/0600: 11.7S  96.5E:     220 [405]:  085  [155]:  963

Lo más interesante del parte:

This system is considered
to be very close to TC intensity

Shear conditions are forecast to become more favourable during Sunday and the
system will remain over SST>28C

The development of the system in the South China Sea should not be detrimental
to this system (el que luego pasará a Bengala)

As the system passes south of 12S the ocean heat content becomes marginal

Si no me fallan las cuentas, tocaría TASHA como primer nombre de la temporada. No parece que pase al Índico SW

Después de un terremoto, un tsunami y la erupción del Merapi, a la lista de desgracias indonesias le falta un ciclón......

Pues en la página de la marina aparece como 02S.TWO

Esto es lo que dicen los Australianos.

IDW24400
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 2:48 am WST on Sunday 31 October 2010

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for the Cocos (Keeling)
Islands.

At 2:00 am WST a tropical low was estimated to be
485 kilometres north northwest of Cocos Island and moving southwest at 4
kilometres per hour.

The low is forecast to develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday. Recent
movement has been slow and the system is expected to commence a southwards turn
during the day and is likely to pass close to the Cocos Islands during Tuesday.
Conditions are favourable for intensification and there is a significant risk
that people on the Cocos Islands will experience VERY DESTRUCTIVE wind gusts.

Gales are not expected on the islands during Sunday, but may develop during
Monday as the system moves closer and intensifies. The period of greatest risk
will commence on Monday evening, with the system likely to pass close to the
islands during Tuesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 2:00 am WST:
.Centre located near...... 8.0 degrees South 95.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 75 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 4 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

The Australian Federal Police advise a BLUE ALERT for communities on Home and
West Island. People need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an
emergency kit including a first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare
batteries, food and water.

People on the Cocos Islands should tune in to 6CKI or the ABC and listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am WST Sunday 31 October.

This advice is available by dialling 1300 659 210.

Según JTWC, GOOD

No me entero.......Este sistema pertenece a Indonesia, ¿no?

¿Y no dicen nada?

La 92S adquiere nombre. ANGGREK con 40 Kts - 993 mb.
Saludos.

Y nombre indonesio. No contaba con que se desarrollase antes de pasar de la 10S, peeeero me equivocaba 

Si no recuerdo mal, mantendrá el nombre una vez pase a terreno dominado por Bureau. De hecho, la agencia indonesia de ciclones es un copy/past de la australiana. Y esta, además, lo nombra como tal

Name: Tropical Cyclone Anggrek
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 8.6S
Longitude: 96.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [147 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 998 hPa

Pues este es el pronóstico de Bureau.



Categoria 3 es vientos entre 65 y 85 kts

Dado el outflow que empieza a mostrar, y el crecimiento continuo de bandas, diría que está en medio de un RI. Pero leyendo el parte del BOM, me echo atrás, sobretodo sin tener el visible encima del ciclón


Sea como fuere, 45kt de vientos sostenidos en medias diezminutales. Esto dice el BOM

Moderate shear continues over the system, however, conditions are forecast to
become more favourable during the morning with shear forecast to diminish and an
outflow channel likely to become better established to the south.
Based on the expected conditions, and in general agreement with the trend in NWP
and STIPS, the system is forecast to reach hurricane intensity early Tuesday

Cizalladura moderada sobre el sistema, aunque con condiciones favorables en cuanto amanezca, con cizalladura bajando, y con un outflow mejor organizado al S del sistema. Con esas condiciones, y con las guias NWP y STIPS, dicen que el martes pronto, tendrá fuerza de huracán

Si el RI se confirma, puede que en menos de 12 horas ya lo sea

 

No hay RI, pero si un constante crecimiento

Oficialmente, tanto BOM como JTWC le otorgan 50kt

El centro de la tormenta se aproxima a las islas de Cocos y Navidad 



BOM dice que mañana tendrá intensidad de huracán

Según wunderground será huracán mañana.


Radar

Catapum pum pum!!





Tiene 24 horas sobre aguas que sustenten desarrollo tropical

02SANGGREK.55kts-982mb-119S-978E



Lo más interesante que cuenta el BOM

Recent ASCAT pass shows only a weak system

Conditions are forecast to become more favourable over the next 12-24 hours with
shear forecast to diminish

ANGGREK se aleja de Cocos y Navidad sin cambios en intensidad