Tal como vimos hace dos dias, comienza a haber algo de movimiento en la zona Sur del Indico, con este sistemita. Veremos a ver si la cizalladura se relaja algo y lo deja desarrollarse en su camino hacia Reunión. Lanzada la alerta por formación tropical por parte de las agencias.
REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
72.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 71.6E, APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
TOWARD A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. A
092055Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AND TUCK UNDER A SHIELD OF
CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING OF THE LLCC OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 34 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN, THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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