Ciclón Tropical Cat. 3 NICHOLAS (Huracán cat. 1 S.S-NW de Australia)

Sistema Tropical 98S (Baja Tropical)

996mb-25-30kt





TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 8
Issued at 3:40 am WDT on Tuesday, 12 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Pardoo to Kalumburu.

At 3:00 am WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
190 kilometres north of Broome and
285 kilometres west southwest of Kuri Bay and
was near stationary.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday. Gales are not expected
in coastal areas on Tuesday, however, gales could develop in coastal areas
between Pardoo and Kalumburu on Wednesday.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 16.3 degrees South 122.0 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
Recent movement.......... near stationary
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour near thunderstorms
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Pardoo and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Tuesday 12 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling  1300 659 210

Abro topic sobre este sistema, el cual será probablemente el próximo Ciclón Tropical de entidad. Y ojo, porque si no fallan los modelos, será de los sistemas que harán catapum en pocas horas 

No es por nada, pero creo que el Sistema 98S es el resurgimiento de la tormenta tropical 17S............. ¿ué pensáis? Además su aspecto es brutal ahora mismo



EDITO: ya me han dicho que no, que este sistema es otro diferente

Y llegó el:

CATAPUM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!![/b][/size]



 

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 3:45 am WDT on Wednesday, 13 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from
Pardoo to Kalumburu.

At 3:00 am WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
375 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
610 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
was near stationary.

The low has intensified overnight and may develop into a tropical cyclone later
today. Gales are not expected in coastal areas today, however, gales could
develop in coastal areas between Pardoo and Kalumburu Wednesday night or on
Thursday.

Details of tropical low at 3:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 15.1 degrees South 120.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... near stationary
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Pardoo and Kalumburu should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am WDT Wednesday 13 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling  1300 659 210

La cizalladura ha bajado ligeramente, y ronda los 20-30kt. Es por esto, que la explosiones convectivas (terriblemente intensas, los topes son extremadamente frios--color blanco de la imagen infrarroja en multicolor) quedan confinadas al W del sistema. Pero el LLCC es bueno, asi que es cuestión de tiempo que dicha convección rodee al sistema

DEPRESIÓN-TORMENTA-CICLÓN TROPICAL CAT.1 (Escala Australiana)

996mb-30/35kt













NICHOLAS está al caer 

Sencillamente ha explotado.


Nada halagüeño el pronóstico para la costa australiana.
 

Saludos 

Oficialmente aún no es NICHOLAS pero parece que las perspectivas para la intensificación de este ciclón son buenas y, atendiendo a los datos de la NRL/Navy y lo que dice la técnica DVORAK, a lo mejor ya se le puede poner nombre

12/1430 UTC    15.2S  120.2E    T2.5/2.5              98S

Buen pedo ha pegado este sistema, con un impresionante borbotón convectivo Me he quedado de piedra viendo las animaciones que has puesto, Torre beer

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TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12
Issued at 3:45 am WDT on Wednesday, 13 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

At 3:00 am WDT a tropical low was estimated to be
375 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
610 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
was near stationary.

The low has intensified overnight and may develop into a tropical cyclone later
today. Gales are not expected in coastal areas today, however, gales could
develop in coastal areas between Pardoo and Kalumburu Wednesday night or on
Thursday.

Details of tropical low at 3:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 15.1 degrees South 120.4 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... near stationary
Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
Central pressure......... 988 hectoPascals

© Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 2008, Bureau of Meteorology

---

No sé de qué hora exactamente (UTC) serán estos datos

Primer parte del JTWC sobre el sistema

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICRO-
WAVE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
DEVELOPING OVER THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN BOTH DECREA-
SING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 19S IS EXP-
ECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER AFTER TAU 48
A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT ALLOWING THE STORM TO BEGIN TRACKING IN A GEN-
ERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND INCREASING SPEED.

Creo que no hace falta traducción. Esto en mapa, se traduce en:



En 48 horas, de TS débil a Ciclón tropical Severo cat. 3 (Huracán cat. 1). Me parece poco, este bicho será mucho más potente seguro 

Bueno hay que esperar, quizas pueda ocurrirle como a los anteriores de mantenerse demasiado tiempo en la misma posición y no se intensifique tanto, de todos modos las tiene todas consigo.

Que se prepare la costa Australiana que les puede tocar uno gordo.

Saludos 

CICLÓN TROPICAL CAT. 1 NICHOLAS (TS S.S)

993mb-40kt

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 3:50 pm WDT on Wednesday, 13 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Kuri Bay to
Bidyadanga.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Pardoo.

At 3:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, was estimated to be
425 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
700 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving east northeast at 8 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas has shown no signs of intensification during the day but in the longer
term it is still likely to intensify.  Nicholas is currently heading towards the
east northeast, however, it is forecast to take a more southerly movement.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas this afternoon or tonight, however, it
is possible gales could develop in coastal areas between Kuri Bay and Pardoo
later on Thursday or on Friday. Pilbara residents are advised that although the
Pilbara coast west of Pardoo is not under threat in the next 48 hours, there is
still a risk in that area over the weekend.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 3:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 14.4 degrees South 120.8 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the east northeast at 8 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 1
Central pressure......... 980 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. Communities between Pardoo and Kuri Bay should listen for the next
advice.

The next advice will be issued by 7:00 pm WDT Wednesday 13 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling  1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

NICHOLAS ya tiene el LLCC totalmente sumergido bajo un manto de convección profunda. En la animación Vis/Swir, se observa como ya gira ordenadamente en el sentido de las agujas del reloj. La cizalladura continua descendiendo, y la tormenta ya se encuentra bajo 10-20kt. Este bicho llegará a los 100kt sin problema:











 

CICLÓN TROPICAL CAT. 1 NICHOLAS (TS S.S)

989mb-45kt

NICHOLAS va a catapum cada 24 horas:
 


A diferencia de ayer, se encuentra sobre cizalladura menos fuerte (15-20kt) y con mejor circulación. Insisto, llegará a vientos de unos 100kt antes de entrar en tierra:









 

Qué magnífico borbotón ! voy a ponerme las pilas una miaja

CICLÓN TROPICAL CAT. 2 NICHOLAS (TS fuerte S.S)

978mb-60kt (navy)

Los datos de los partes de Bureau no dan tanta fuerza a NICHOLAS, probablemente debido a que la cizalladura ha subido ligeramente para situarse en torno a 20kt. Los vientos en altura de componente SE alejan la convección, profundisima, del centro del sistema hacia la parte W. Aún asi, el giro de la tormenta es definido, y no para de intentar cubrir todo el vórtice. Lo acabará consiguiendo













Sigo pensando que llegará a 100kt

 

En fin, me pasa lo mismo que con IVÁN. Excesivo Navy, corto Bureau: ni Ciclón Tropical Severo, ni Ciclón Tropical cat. 1 (australianamente hablando  )





Bien organizado en niveles bajos, en altura le falta definir mejor la circulación, sobre todo por la parte E del sistema, donde tiene el vórtice con poca convección. La cizallladura, baja ligeramente hasta 15kt aprox. Los partes del JTWC ya elevan sus vientos en próximas jornadas hasta 80kt...., mis 100kt previstos están más cerca....