Lanzada de ATFC de ultima hora sobre un pequeño disturbio situado al suroeste de las remotas de Bora Bora en el Pacífico suroeste.

Fiji nombra como Depresión Tropical 14.F.

CitarTropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/0922 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14F [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.9S 156.4W AT
090600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. TD14F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. SST
AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. 

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITHOUT MUCH INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/20036.txt

93PINVEST.15kts-1010mb-180S-1588W

Pues finalmente llego a alcanzar la categoría de Tormenta Tropical, y nombrada como HALEY.



Pico máximo de intensidad previsto por la marina de 45 KT.

Fiji lo alza a Ciclón Tropical... 

CitarFiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEY, CATEGORY ONE (14F)
0:00 AM FST February 11 2013
====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Haley (990 hPa) located at 22.8S 151.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots. Position poor based on GOES enhanced infrared imagery.

Gale Force Winds
===================
60 NM from the center in the northern semi-circle
40 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle


Overall organization has not change much in past 24 hours. Deep convection has decreased in last 24 hours. SYstem lies just to the south of an upper level ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. HALEY continues to be steered southeastward by northwest deep layer mean wind flow. Outflow good to the northern and eastern sector of the system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 26C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap on LOG10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, MET=2.0, and PT=2.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Global models agree on a southeast movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 24.0S 150.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 24.7S 149.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 24.9S 147.5W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

Tropical Cyclone 14P (Haley) Warning #03 Final Warning
Issued at 11/0300Z