Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120WISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/0922 UTC 2013 UTC.TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14F [1004HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 18.9S 156.4W AT090600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONAND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS. TD14F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS. SSTAROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONICCIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A UPPER LEVELRIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THENORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDSWITHOUT MUCH INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THENEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST INTHE AREA.
Fiji Meteorological ServicesTropical Disturbance Advisory #6TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEY, CATEGORY ONE (14F)0:00 AM FST February 11 2013====================================At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Haley (990 hPa) located at 22.8S 151.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots. Position poor based on GOES enhanced infrared imagery.Gale Force Winds===================60 NM from the center in the northern semi-circle40 NM from the center in the southern semi-circleOverall organization has not change much in past 24 hours. Deep convection has decreased in last 24 hours. SYstem lies just to the south of an upper level ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. HALEY continues to be steered southeastward by northwest deep layer mean wind flow. Outflow good to the northern and eastern sector of the system but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 26C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap on LOG10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, MET=2.0, and PT=2.0.Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/D0.5/24 HRSGlobal models agree on a southeast movement with gradual weakening.Forecast and Intensity=======================12 HRS: 24.0S 150.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)24 HRS: 24.7S 149.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)48 HRS: 24.9S 147.5W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
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