Estrecho de Madagascar: No creo que salga nada del Invest situado en esa zona, pero GFS y Europeo están tontorrones y marcan algo de desarrollo de aquí a 48-72h. Habrá que estar atentos.
REMARKS:161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 43.2E.TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 161224Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THIS WELL MARKED LLCC SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH (35 KNOTS) BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, ONE CHANNEL NORTHWESTWARD AND ANOTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT DRIVES THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL INITIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM AS IT SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES. AFTER TAU 48, THIS WESTERN STR WILL DRIVE TC 09S TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. AFTER WHICH, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALLOW FOR GENERAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS. AFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES MOZAMBIQUE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM SWITCHES STEERING INFLUENCES. DUE TO THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 152000Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 152000).//
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