IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0750 UTC 20/12/2011
Name: Tropical Low 
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 13.8S
Longitude: 154.6E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [145 deg]
Speed of Movement: 14 knots [25 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1003 hPa

Favourable outflow in all quadrants under the influence of an upper atmospheric
anticyclone. No significant wind shear expected over the next 2 days before an
upper trough should impact the system on Friday. As a result the system is
expected to develop over the next 48 hours and move to the south-southeast on
Wednesday and Thursday, before experiencing increasing wind shear and steering
to the southeast.

Dirección Sur paralelo a la costa este de Australia y sin mucho desarrollo , pues la cizalladura será elevada y más que lo será en los próximos días en su avance hasta tierras de Nueva Zelanda.



Más información , en el Seguimiento Tropical

Organización un poco extraña , pero por contra la convección profunda se generaliza en torno a su núcleo (Core). Y la marina se menciona al respecto y alza al sistema a Medium.




http://www.goes.noaa.gov/

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
155.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 154.8E, APPROXIMATELY 825 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200706Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS
IMPROVED, FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH MULTIPLE BANDS CONVERGING INTO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP ALSO
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DISTINCT DEEP MOISTURE
ENVELOPE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORTS A STRENGTHENING,
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS. A 20/06Z SHIP REPORT
ABOUT 150 NM NORTH INDICATES WINDS OF 290/16 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR
1005 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LLCC
WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Si no fuera por la cizalladura tan elevada que se espera a lo largo de todo su Track ..... Este sistema daría de que hablar.

El Centro Meteorológico de Brisbane emite el primer aviso por temporal en alta mar.

IDQ20008
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 1246UTC 20 DECEMBER 2011

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude thirteen decimal seven south (13.7S)
longitude one hundred and fifty four decimal eight east (154.8E)
Recent movement : east northeast at 2 knots
Maximum winds   : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1003 hPa
The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 36
hours.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/11122006/5.html

Centro bien cubierto por la continuidad de generación de explosiones convectivas por lo que la marina debería de lanzar en el siguiente boletín , la alerta por formación ciclónica para la zona de Salomon.

Raro que el S.M De Nueva Caledonia no se mencione para nada sobre el sistema , aun no estando en sus aguas.... Si se les viene encima.



Esto tiene pinta de estar cerca de la Categoría de Tormenta Tropical. Por el momento la marina le otorga vientos cercanos a los producido por una DT.

 

Arranca bien la temporada por la zona





Y el GFS en su ultima salida lo mete más cerca de la costa este.

La marina lanza la alerta por formación ciclónica sobre el 02U.

Citar1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7S 155.5E TO 17.9S 158.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 201830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.1S 155.6E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S
154.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 155.6E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201747Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED,
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND THE LLCC. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP ALSO INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A DISTINCT DEEP MOISTURE ENVELOPE. RECENT
SCATTEROMETERY DATA SUPPORTS A STRENGTHENING LLCC WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM SUPPORT THE LLCC POSITION AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DIFFLUENCE OVER THE LLCC WITH WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

Por fin tenemos Floater y huele a Tormentón Tropical.

Buenas Noches

Tenemos a la primera Tormenta Tropical para la zona Este de Australia (Fiji) y para los australianos....

Ciclón Tropical FINA Categoría 1

SITUATION
At 1500 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal five south (17.5S)
longitude one hundred and fifty seven decimal two east (157.2E)
Recent movement : south at 10 knots
Maximum winds   : 35 knots
Central pressure: 996 hPa





El viernes comenzará su extra-tropicalización ,por lo que aún tiene tiempo de ganar algo más de fuerza (poco), si la cizalladura lo permite, en estos momentos se sitúa en 20 KT y se espera que aumente en 24 horas.

Amanece sobre FINA, centro completamente expuesto aunque el pelotón convectivo al este del centro es de película. Debe haber cizalladura bien fuerte.

Saludos 

FINA se ha quedado en pelotas picada ....... 



Centro totalmente expuesto , es nombrarla y quedarse bien pelada. Cosas de la Cizalla..... 

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Sorry Rayo ... A la vez !!!