Ciclón Tropical GENE - Categoría 3 - (Este islas Fidji))

Sistema Tropical 99P





15 kts - 1006 mb










Este sistema está localizado al norte de Fidji.


Saludos.

Al final se decidió y ya es una Tormenta Tropical... 35 kts - 996 mb

CICLÓN TROPICAL GENE CATEGORÍA 1

990mb y 40kt

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [990HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17
DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 7 EAST AT 280000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.0 SOUTH 178.7 EAST AT 280000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.7S 176.5E AT 281200 UTC
AND NEAR 18.9S 174.5E AT 290000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM





Se encuentra atravesando Fiji. Este ciclón tiene circulación retrógrada, y me da en la punta e la nariz, que volverá sobre sus propios pasos

GENE sube como la espuma, y con el inconveniente de navegar entre tierra 

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 177 DECIMAL 3 EAST AT 281200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.1 SOUTH 177.3 EAST AT 281200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING
TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS SOUTHWESTERLY
TRACK AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHWEST.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.8S 175.0E AT 290000 UTC
AND NEAR 19.0S 173.1E AT 291200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 074. THE NEXT GALE WARNING
WILL BE ISSUED AT 281900UTC

Tambien intenta desarrollar ojo, lo que sería dificil de comprender al estar pasando por tierra. Pero creo que la epxlicación está en que el centro del Ciclón está bordeando la costa N de la isla de Suva

28/0830 UTC    17.7S  177.9E    T3.5/3.5             GENE  --  South Pacific Ocean

GENE se encontraría en un nivel de intensidad parecido a GULA..................

Adjunto mapa de previsión de trayectoria, y camino ya recorrido, según el Servicio Meteorológico de FIJI... Por cierto, habrá que estar atentos a la actualización de mapas de lluvia recogidos hoy en las islas

Mapa adjunto © 1995 - 2007 Fiji Meteorological Service

Ciclón Tropical GENE  - Tormenta Tropical -





45 kts - 989 mb

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17
DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 1 EAST AT 290000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 17.9 SOUTH 176.1 EAST AT 290000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 07 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING SLOWLY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.7S 174.2E AT 291200 UTC
AND NEAR 17.5S 172.2E AT 300000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 076

Brutales, las cantidades de lluvia que ha dejado 'GENE' en las islas FIJI:


© 1995 - 2007 Fiji Meteorological Service

Por otro lado, ahora que el ciclón se aleja de este archipiélago, parece que se está debilitando... Y así lo confirma el boletín de discusión del Servicio Meteorológico de FIJI:

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/0839 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 18.5S 175.5E AT
290600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES ELSEWHERE.

CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS IT DEVELOPS WITH CLOUD TOPS
WARMING ABOUT THE WESTERN FLANK. SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SHEAR ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK. STEERING INFLUENCED BY A
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW OVER AREA WITH A MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC GENE. THIS SUPPORTS THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS DRIVING THE CYCLONE ALONG A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.95 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREE, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.


FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC NEAR 18.7S 174.1E MOV SW 10KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC NEAR 18.9S 172.0E MOV SW 10KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.5S 170.5E MOV WSW 8KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 20.0S 169.2E MOV WSW 7KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 291430 UTC.

Parece que 'GENE' ya ha dado de sí todo lo que ha podido...

Según Wunderground, vida de GENE:

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type

-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 01/27/08  15.3S 179.4W    40       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08  15.3S 179.4W    40       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/28/08  17.3S 178.5E    50       Tropical Storm
18 GMT 01/28/08  17.8S 176.0E    50       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 01/29/08  18.5S 175.1E    50       Tropical Storm

GENE se encuentra a punto de caramelo para ser designada como Ciclón Tropical  Severo cat. 3:

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [980HPA] CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 173 DECIMAL 3 EAST AT 300000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.5 SOUTH 173.3 EAST AT 300000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 08 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE
AND WITHIN 70 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 18.7S 171.8E AT 301200 UTC
AND NEAR 19.1S 170.3E AT 310000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO
SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING

Cizalladura por debajo de 10kt, oceano a 27-28ºC, continuas explosiones en torno al centro, circulación poco elongada, niveles de TCHP en torno a 100... En poco tiempo subirá de rango

Según el NRL, tenemos a GENE con 60 KT de vientos sostenidos y 978 milibares... Ahora mismo, la imagen en modo IR no permite ver el ojo, pero usando otros sensores, descubrimos que sí existe:



Debe de estar muy cerca de alcanzar la categoría 1 de huracán, en la escala de Saffir-Simpson.

Datos que extraigo del JTWC:

ZCZC 230
WTPS11 NFFN 301200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/1305 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 18.6S 172.4E
AT 301200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR. CYCLONE MOVING WEST
ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF
CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES ELSEWHERE.

COLD TOPS OVER LLCC HAS ENABLED INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE LAST 12
HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. STEERING STILL
INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO ALLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 48HRS. CIMSS SHOWING
MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BUT DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK.
DVORAK ANALYSIS, EMBEDDED CENTRE GIVES DT=5.0, BUT DVORAK BASED ON
MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND TAKES THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING POLEWARD.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 310000 UTC NEAR 19.4S 170.8E MOV WSW 9KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 311200 UTC NEAR 19.8S 169.3E MOV WSW 6KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC NEAR 20.3S 168.4E MOV WSW 5KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC NEAR 21.0S 167.9E MOV SW 5KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

Por lo que su pico de intensidad podría llegar a los 90 KT.............................. Y por lo comentado en el análisis, GENE correspondería con un categoría 1 en la escala de Saffir-Simpson.

Cuidadín con GENE, que ha escondido su centro bajo un manto de potente convección. Me huele a que busca desarrollar un ojo (y no sería su primer intento). Último parte de Fiji:

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18
DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 172 DECIMAL 4 EAST AT 301200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.6 SOUTH 172.4 EAST AT 301200 UTC.
CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVING WEST ABOUT 05 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE

AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.4S 170.8E AT 310000 UTC
AND NEAR 19.8S 169.3E AT 311200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 082

A puntito de caramelo...

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [965HPA] CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19
DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 171 DECIMAL 3 EAST AT 310000 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 19.1 SOUTH 171.3 EAST AT 310000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 05 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE

AND WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 19.7S 170.1E AT 311200 UTC
AND NEAR 20.4S 169.2E AT 010000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 084.

En las animaciones del visible, se observa como hace unas horas su ojo era visible nitidamente. Ahora parece que lo ha tapado, pero en otro tipo de sensores (imagen en rojo) se observa como lo mantiene. El ojo se encuentra bajo un CDO: