CICLÓN TROPICAL JOKWE967mb-75kt (JTWC)
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (JOKWE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION
NEAR TAU 48.
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY AFTER CROSSING OVER
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR NEARLY 12 HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM ALL
AVAILABLE AGENCIES.
TC 22S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG ITS TRACK. GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO AID IN INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER
THIS TIME,
INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSETTING
INFLUENCES OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND INTERACTION WITH LAND.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY-PACKED NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
Me fiaría más por esos datos de Reunión, que de los del JTWC, basicamente porque tanto en el canal multisensor, como en la animación infrarroja, se ve como el anillo convectivo ha perdido algo de fuelle. No obstante, la cateogoría de Ciclón Tropical está garantizada ahora, y lo está para los próximos días. Eso si, como comenta el parte del centro de tifones, su potencia está supeditada al paso por zonas con TCHP elevado y a su interacción con Mozambique. Cuanto más al S se desplace menos energía encontrará. 90kt hasta que se acerque al continente africano vale, más allá de esos una vez se aleje (si es que se aleja) excesivos
Yo apuesto a que NO entrará de lleno en Mozambique