Ciclón tropical JUNE (Tormenta tropical S.S.10-P Nueva Caledonia)

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Ciclón tropical JUNE (Tormenta tropical S.S.10-P Nueva Caledonia)
« en: Viernes 17 Enero 2014 20:37:37 pm »
Otro que ayer veíamos como MEDIO en su nivel de desarrollo y ha pegado un buen "petardazo" en las últimas horas, llegando a los 30 kts. según se ve en las imágenes del microondas. :o
El JTWC le da un pico máximo de 45 kts. Veremos.
« Última modificación: Viernes 17 Enero 2014 20:40:16 pm por Sudoku »
Sanlúcar de Barrameda (Cádiz)...En la desembocadura, a orillas del Guadalquivir y Bético, para lo bueno y lo malo

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Re:Ciclón tropical JUNE (Tormenta tropical S.S.10-P Nueva Caledonia)
« Respuesta #1 en: Viernes 17 Enero 2014 20:50:19 pm »
Y nada más terminar el post, tengo que modificar porque ya ha llegado a la categoría de Tormenta Tropical S.S.
10PJUNE.35kts-996mb-183S-1628E y el JTWC lanza el primer parte sobre el sistema.
Citar
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 163.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JUNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 171058Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE
PERSISTED ALONG THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON THE
CONSOLIDATING STRUCTURE AND A SPREAD OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
THAT RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC
JUNE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS STR WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT STEADILY DRIVES THE SYSTEM
POLEWARD TOWARDS NEW ZEALAND. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH 45 KNOTS.
AFTER TAU 36, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VWS
WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AT TAU 48. TC 10P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME VARIANCES IN
THE EXACT TRACK AND TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AS IT MOVES POLEWARD. DUE TO
THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
171200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 170251Z JAN 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21
PGTW 170300).//
Buen aspecto el de este "bicho" y buenos comienzos en el Pacífico Sur.
Sanlúcar de Barrameda (Cádiz)...En la desembocadura, a orillas del Guadalquivir y Bético, para lo bueno y lo malo