Ciclón Tropical kOJI-JONI (16S - Huracán Categoría 1 S.S - O.Índico)

Próximo ciclón tropical a la vista para los próximos días en el NE del Océano Índico. De momento se encuentra en una zona con una cizalladura moderada (15-20 KT) , pero se espera que en 24 horas y mientras se dirija rumbo al sur, está misma disminuya a indices totalmente favorables para un desarrollo . lento pero constante. Tanto GFS como el ECM , ven un desarrollo , más o menos potente de dicho sistema.

Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate East Indian Ocean



93SINVEST.15kts-1010mb-134S-1047E

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.4N 104.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 750 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE MONSOON TROUGH. A 051114Z
PARTIAL WINDSAT PASS DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS CONVECTION
IS IN A REGION OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO RELAXING VWS AND IMPROVING
CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

 

Convección profunda generalizándose alrededor de su núcleo y presentando ya varios síntomas de organización.

93SINVEST.25kts-1003mb-132S-984E



La marina aumenta a Medium la posibilidad de formación ciclónica en las próximas 24 horas.

 

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S
104.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 99.6E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVEMENT OF LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), BUT CONVECTION REMAINS
LOOSELY ORGANIZED AND IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND VWS
RELAXES. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL FEATURES AND ANTICIPATED RELAXATION
OF VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

Respecto a los modelos , todo se mantiene igual en la ultima actualización de los dos grandes , ciclón bastante potente.

 

Tenemos Floater  

Tremenda combustión esta generando , conjunta con unos topes extremadamente fríos.

AVN + RBTOP Loop



Huele a Huracán... 

Lanzada alerta por formación ciclónica por la marina para la Tormenta Tropical 16S.

16SSIXTEEN.35kts-996mb-147S-963E



 
 

La 16S va organizandose paulatinamente y generando una buena convección.
El JTCW le da un pico de 75Kt en 60 horas.

La 16S un poco más fuerte

16SSIXTEEN.40kts-993mb-152S

Tremendo CDO  , aunque se sigue observando que la convección profunda sigue estando desplazada ligeramente al W del centro del sistema , cosas de la moderada cizalladura de componente W.

Triple Loop (Rainbow - AVN - RBTOP)



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/

Por fin el BOM decide seguir al sistema , y de momento Tropical Low 



Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 08/0600: 15.3S  91.8E:     050 [095]:  040  [075]:  995
+24: 08/1800: 15.5S  89.7E:     080 [150]:  045  [085]:  988
+36: 09/0600: 15.8S  87.8E:     115 [210]:  055  [100]:  981
+48: 09/1800: 16.4S  86.0E:     145 [270]:  060  [110]:  977
+60: 10/0600: 17.3S  84.4E:     195 [355]:  065  [120]:  977
+72: 10/1800: 18.1S  83.4E:     240 [445]:  060  [110]:  978




Vaya boloncio convectivo 

Meteosat Indian Ocean Data Coverage Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate East Indian Ocean



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 989.1mb/ 51.0kt


 

Ya tenemos a KOJI

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (KOJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON KNES
AND APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A 080346Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING 45 KNOT
WINDS WITH STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOT) GRADIENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS TC 16S IS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK OUTFLOW WITH NO STRONG
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 16S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AT
THAT TIME, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE STEERING
RIDGE AND ALLOW TC 16S TO TURN POLEWARD. TC KOJI SHOULD CONTINUALLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND
OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER TAU
72, INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE INITIAL 72 HOURS AND THEN
DIVERGES SLIGHTLY WITH THE TURN POLEWARD. GFS PREDICTS MORE OF A
RECURVATURE SCENARIO. HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
ECMWF, NOGAPS, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (IRINA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

16SKOJI.45kts-989mb-158S-906E



El BOM dejará de emitir partes sobre este sistema que ahora pasa a los dominios de Reunión.

Koji sigue aumentando su fuerza.

16SKOJI.50kts-985mb-166S-882E



Y Reunión ya emite boletines sobre Koji

BULLETIN DU 08 MARS A 22H37 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES
**************************************************

NATURE DES SYSTEMES DEPRESSIONNAIRES TROPICAUX PRESENTS SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE KOJI-JONI
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 984 HPA
POSITION LE 08 MARS A 22 HEURES LOCALES: 16.5 SUD / 88.2 EST
(SEIZE DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT HUIT DEGRES DEUX EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES : 3435 KM AU SECTEUR: EST
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST A 22 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR: 17.4 S / 84.0 E

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR: 19.5 S / 80.8 E

FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR: 22.2 S / 79.5 E

DEPRESSION TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 96H PAR: 24.6 S / 79.3 E

DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT,
CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 120H PAR: 25.8 S / 76.3 E


ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

Su centro continua cubierto por un reguero de nubes altas y bien rodeado de convección profunda ,
buenos topes fríos que sigue generando el KOJI-JONI... vaya nombrecito!!! 

Dado a la imposibilidad de localizar su centro , que mejor que utilizar la siguiente imagen que nos proporciona la NOAA.

AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)





A ver si genera alguna que otra banda en espiral convectiva interesante en las próximas 24 horas.

Buenas noches.

 

Koji sigue pasito a pasito ganando fuerza y en 24 horas podría alcanzar la categoría de huracán.

16SKOJI.55kts-982mb-171S-861E