El diámetro de ese OJO es muy pequeño. Creo que ese monstruo está en plena "ebullición", con aguas superficiales muy calientes y una cizalladura de 5 kts.......a ver hasta dónde llega.
Este es el parte del JTWC:
380
wtxs32 pgtw 230900
msgid/genadmin/navmarfcstcen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/tropical cyclone 08s (funso) warning nr 010//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 08s (funso) warning nr 010
01 active tropical cyclone in southio
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
wind radii valid over open water only
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remarks:
230900z position near 18.5s 39.4e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 08s, located approximately 590 nm northeast of
Maputo, Mozambique, has tracked southeastward at 03 knots over the
past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery reveals that tc
08s continues to improve its organizational structure with a cloud
filled eye and increasing symmetry as the system moves away from the
African continent. A 230230z ssmis image reveals the inner core has
tightly curved banding and deep convection consolidating around the
low level circulation center (LLCC) with vigorous convection
extending eastward to near the coast of Madagascar. Upper level
analysis indicates that tc 08s has favorable conditions for
continued intensification with minimal vertical wind shear (vws)
values of 5 knots or less and excellent radial outflow depicted in
animated water vapor satellite imagery. Additionally, sea surface
temperatures in the Mozambique Channel are between 28 to 29 degrees
celsius. The current position is based on the SSMI image and fixes
on the infrared eye with good confidence. The current intensity is
now assessed at 100 knots based on pgtw and fmee Dvorak current
intensity estimates. Tc 08s is forecast to initially track
southward, then turn more southwesterly after tau 48 as the
subtropical ridge (str) to the south becomes the more dominant
steering mechanism. Due to the complex and competing steering
mechanisms, tc 08s is forecast to slow down in the extended Taus.
The latest numerical model guidance is split on the track solution.
Ukmo and ECMWF indicate a slow cyclonically curved track with
possible recurvature beyond the current forecast period, while
NOGAPS, GFDN and WBAR indicate a faster and more southerly track
that quickly recurves the storm into the midlatitude westerlies.
Finally the GFS is similar to the ECMWF/UKMET solution. Although GFS
unrealistically turns the storm more southwestward towards
Mozambique in the early Taus, it is more in agreement with the
European model solutions overall. The models indicating a fast
recurve scenario forecast a strong trough to move through around tau
48 whereas the slow scenario solutions forecast a weaker, negatively
tilted trough which has little impact on the str allowing tc 08s to
continue tracking towards the coast. The later philosophy is more in
line with current observations. The long range probabilistic
ensemble models indicate that recurvature is still a possibility
beyond the current forecast range. This forecast is biased toward
the ecwmf /UKMET /AVN solutions and departs from consensus after tau
48. Maximum significant wave height at 230600z is 34 feet. Next
warnings at 232100z and 240900z.
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