
Vorticidad relativa a 850 MB

WXTLIST WMO=ABIO10
ABIO10 PGTW 022030 2017061 2031
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/022030Z-031800ZMAR2017//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021930ZMAR2017
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.4S 60.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 58.5E, APPROXIMATELY 605
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 020524Z ASCAT PASS, AND A 021437Z 91 GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICT MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES INCREASING EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND
FAVORABLY LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 28C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AND CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. BASED ON IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 021930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.8S
134.3E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, A 021258Z ASCAT PASS,
AND A 021551Z 91 GHZ ASMR2 IMAGE DEPICT SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WESTWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 29C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THE DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AND POSSIBLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE WEAK LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH
AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
WXTLIST: done
Probabilidad de formación de 24 a 48 horas:


Pero la SST no es demasiado elevada, un poco más alta que la media: