Quien siga seguimiento (valga la redundoncia), sabrá de que hablo

Primer invest oficial de la temporada, que será Ciclón Tropical de cierta entidad, en cuanto consiga (si es que lo hace), separarse de la costa australiana. Bureau, como decía, ya lo sigue



TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3  
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 am CST Friday 11 December 2009

A Cyclone WATCH for a developing tropical low continues for coastal areas from
Croker Island to Cape Fourcroy.

At 3:30 am CST a Tropical Low was estimated to be 150 kilometres north northwest
of Goulburn Island and 305 kilometres northeast of Darwin and moving west at 15
kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in
coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST:
.Centre located near...... 10.4 degrees South 132.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 85 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ below cyclone intensity
.Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals




Nombre que toca, LAURENCE

Dejó el campo preparado Torre, para cuando el sistema alcanzara más desarrollo y como comenta BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY en su TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 12:

The tropical low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during today as
it moves further into the Timor Sea.


- Mientras que le asigna 85 km/h de velocidad, en las rachas de viento cercanas al centro (45.9kt) y 1004mb.

Details of Tropical Low at 12:30 am CST [11:00 pm WST]:
Centre located near     13.2 degrees South 129.8 degrees East
Location accuracy       within 45 kilometres
Recent movement         towards the west southwest at 7 km per hour
Wind gusts near centre  85 kilometres per hour, and intensifying
Severity category       below cyclone intensity
Central pressure        1004 hectoPascals

eso es parungo.

añado un satélite.


diooooos, hay 6 invest activadoooos!!!

ya voooy

- Aviso nº17 de  BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY; Ciclón Tropical LAURENCE cat1.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17 

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 3:30 pm CST [2:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 12.7 degrees South 128.0 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west northwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 95 kilometres per hour, and intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 998 hectoPascals


- Por su parte el JTWC no upgradea el sistema y solo permanece el aviso de alerta tropical con 27-30kt y 1003mb.

se espera que llegue a categoria 2 de cara al martes
tan solo depresion tropical con 31 nudos


dvorak
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                2.1 / 999.4mb/ 31.0kt



96 hrs, valid at:
   170600z --- 15.9s 120.5e
   Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   vector to 120 hr posit: 215 deg/ 05 kts

un saludo

JTWC asigna 45kt a LAURENCE y no espera que aumente su intensidad más allá de esa cifra.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 127.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT


- Por su parte Bureau of Meteorology asigna 54kt (100km/h) Categoria 1.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 3:30 pm CST [2:00 pm WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 127.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 100 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 996 hectoPascals

Bureau incrementa algo más la intensidad de los vientos de LAURENCE, con 59kt (110km/h) y 991mb.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST]:
.Centre located near...... 13.2 degrees South 126.6 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 35 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the west at 10 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 110 kilometres per hour, and slowly intensifying
.Severity category........ 1
.Central pressure......... 991 hectoPascals


- Y comenta que alejado de tierra comenzará a recurvar SW.

Tropical Cyclone Laurence is expected to curve southwest close to the northwest
Kimberley coast in Western Australia.


- Mientras tanto JTWC asigna 45kt al sistema.

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (LAURENCE) WARNING NR 003 RELOCATED
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   140600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 127.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

parungo que te teng aqui abandonao...
ando muy liado, mañana acabo ya el ultimo examen que me queda y te hecho una mano en el seguimiento hasta que vuelva '' ''

joer, ningun satelite hace la compsicion sobre el centro del sistema...
dejo éste



datos dvorak

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.1 / 992.9mb/ 47.0kt


un saludo

weeeeeeeyy!!

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

huracán categoria 1 Laurence

se espera que se debilite a 70 nudos en 12 horas
a ver que dice el siguiente parte del JTWC
ultimo dvorak hace un par de horas, ahora está sobre tierra
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 973.2mb/ 72.2kt
imagen de antes de tocar tierra sobre las costas del N de australia




trayectoria mas hacia el interior de australia.
historia del sistema:

Time             Lat   Lon    Wind(mph)   Storm type
-------------------------------------------------------------
18 GMT 12/14/09  13.3S 126.6E    65       Tropical Storm
06 GMT 12/15/09  14.4S 125.5E    85       Category 1


un saludo

Pues sí, Pepe, LAURENCE categoría 1 para el JTWC...

- Sin embargo el RSMC (Regional Specialized Meteorology Center) competente y en este caso el Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology asigna 220km/h (118kt) con lo que es catalogado como Categoría 3 para Bureau.

- Pequeño pero destructivo.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 35
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 15 December 2009
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

At 8:00 pm WST Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence, Category 3 was estimated to be
90 kilometres north northeast of Kuri Bay and
200 kilometres northeast of Cockatoo Island and
moving southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but intense tropical cyclone moving
southwest close to the Kimberley coast. VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 220
kilometres per hour are being experienced close to the system centre and are
expected to extend along the coast to Kuri Bay overnight.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence at 8:00 pm WST:
.Centre located near...... 14.8 degrees South 124.9 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 220 kilometres per hour and weakening
.Severity category........ 3
.Central pressure......... 960 hectoPascals

me inquieta bastante que no se adentre en tierra, si no que lleva ya mas de 48 horas ''tocando la gaita'' en la costa, cuando ''australia'' decía que iba tierra adentro...

Bureau actualiza hasta la Categoría 4, con vientos sostenidos de 230km/h (124kt).

- Y comenta esto:

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but intense tropical cyclone having VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 230 kilometres per hour close to the cyclone centre. As Laurence tracks to the southwest near the Kimberley coast VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds may develop at Kuri Bay early Wednesday morning.


- Su cercanía a tierra, como dice Pepe, es inquietante y a pesar de ello se ha fortalecido bastante. JTWC no actualiza hasta las 21:00UTC. Parece que en el canal IR quiere presentar el "eye like feature".