REMARKS:312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 170.4W.TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTSOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 06P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROUGHLY 7 NM DIAMETER DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE AND A GENERALLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 06P CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER, TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND MEANDER POLEWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO THE WEST. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM WATER. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 48 AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL FALL AFTER TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 120. NUMERCIAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH THE NAVGEM, GFDN, AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE TIGHTLY-PACKED PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING, NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//
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