Ciclón Tropical Severo ULA (Cat. 4 S.S. 06-P. Islas Fiji - Pacífico Suroeste)

Se anima por fín la temporada en el Pacífico Suroeste.

Aumentan su pico de intensidad hasta los 80 kts. Buena circulación, pero de momento, le falta algo de "chicha" en forma de convección, para que comience a carburar en serio, a pesar de esos 55kt-982mb.

Catapúm de ULA, alcanzando los 90 kts. Lógicamente, ahora el JTWC apuesta fuerte y prevee un pico de intensidad de 115 nudos.

REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 170.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ULA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 90
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
KNES. TC 06P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,
SUPPORTED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ROUGHLY 7 NM DIAMETER DEVELOPING EYE
FEATURE AND A GENERALLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 06P
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THEREAFTER, TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND MEANDER POLEWARD
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A PERSISTENT TROUGH TO THE WEST. CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE CONTINUED
INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND WARM WATER.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 48 AND ALONG-
TRACK OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL FALL AFTER TAU 48, WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AND DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 120.
NUMERCIAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH THE
NAVGEM, GFDN, AND COAMPS-TC INDICATING A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
OF THE PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING. THE CURRENT JTWC FORECAST LIES WITHIN
THE TIGHTLY-PACKED PRIMARY MODEL GROUPING, NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010900Z AND 012100Z.//

Sí, sí, claro.........90 Kt.. ¿Y las imágenes del microondas, qué? ¿Y las estimaciones de ADT, qué?
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 955.5mb/104.6kt

06PULA.115kts-937mb-194S-1718E
Como diría mi compañero.........se salió de madre.

Pues si. Además tiene un anillo convectivo descomunal y muy estable, parece que sin ciclos de reemplazo a la vista por ahora. Se supone, no obstante, que ya ha alcanzado su pico de intensidad, ya veremos... De momento mantiene sus 115kt.


Saludos. 

Ula ya es historia tropical.