Ciclón Tropical Severo WILMA Categoría 4 (Huracán Categoría 4 08P-Samoa/Tonga)

Se intuye cierre de circulación. Nadi ya cataloga como Depresión

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [1002 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.7S 178.2W
AT 200600UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PRESISTENT PAST 24 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND
UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A WEAK SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCUALTION EXTENDS TO 500 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE MOVING IT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.



De cumplir desarrollo, tocaría WILMA  

Pues tiene papeletas si....

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 20/2321 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD06F [1003 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.7S 177.1W
AT 202100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/IR/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCUALTION
EXTENDS TO 500 HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVING IT
SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

A ver que tal bicho sale.

Emitida la TCFA:


Buen aspecto el que está adiquriendo,ya posee 30 kts.

Nueva tormenta tropical 08P nadi aún la cataloga depresión tropical pero no deben tardar en aumentarle el rango a ciclón 

08PEIGHT.35kts-996mb-141S-1740W

Mientras que Nadi sigue sin darle más bola, el JTWC le da algo más de fuerza

08PEIGHT.40kts-993mb-131S-1730W

No parece gran cosa, aunque el outflow parece mejorar

Y sigue ganando fuerza y siguen también sin nombrarla ciclón, el pico de intensidad del JTWC es de 65 KT 

08PEIGHT.45kts-989mb-126S-1718W

Nace Wilma.

460
WTPS01 NFFN 221200
GALE WARNING 055 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 22/1339 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE [995HPA] CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
13.3 SOUTH 172.7 WEST AT 221200 UTC. POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 13.3S 172.7W AT 221200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 08 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO
50 KNOTS BY 231200 UTC.EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 080 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 13.8S 172.0W AT 230000 UTC
AND NEAR 14.6S 171.7W AT 231200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNEL. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.


THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 053.

 

Y tanto que mejora... 

Y sigue mejorando.


Esto dicen desde JTWC


 

Amanece sobre WILMA. La marina, le da un punto más

08PWILMA.50kts-985mb-116S-1714W

WILMA entra en combustión espontanea. Nadi le da un pico de 40kt, por los 50kt de intensidad máxima que tuvo en S.S según el JTWC

Wilma presentaba un aspecto muy pobre esta mañana...
Pese a eso, mejoró su aspecto al instante.


50kts-985mB