Ciclón Tropical Severo YASI Categoría 5 (Huracán Categoría 4 SS 11P-Australia)

Próximo bicho en camino por el Pacífico SW. La Niña está especialmente productiva para Australia, porque esta cosa va a coger ruta W-SW, camino del E del pais

No es descartable que acabe virando al S cuando se encuentre entre Nueva Caledonia y Australia, para no acabar en tierras australianas


Nadi ya la sigue

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD09F CENTRE 1005HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S
176.8W AT 262100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON IR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT INCREASED IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
SYSTEM LIES ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
REGION, IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE

Europeo y GFS siguen desarrollando al sistema, miedo me da.


 

De momento, sigue siendo un churrasco, aunque el Nadi ya emite partes como Depresión



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1004HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S
179.2E AT 270600 UTC SLOW MOVING

Perturbación todavía muy "monzoninzada"

Ha mejorado bastante.


El europeo sigue siendo bastante contundente.
+72 hrs


+120 hrs


Que se vayan preparando por Australia, en 4-5 días van a recibirle en todo su esplendor

Veremos como influye el Antonio en el futuro Yasi ......Saludos

Nadi aumenta las posibilidades de desarollo

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.



Está empezando a generar bandas. Sinónimo de buen outflow

Lanzada TCFA


Aspecto general.


Ya se pueden ir poniendo las pilas en Australia que este bicharraco tiene una pinta tremebunda

Esto ya es Tormenta de fijo.

30kts-1000mb


Consenso de trayectorias.


Landfall previsto a primeras horas del Jueves.

El futuro YASI mete el TURBO





Y media Australia pendiente del Anthony!!!!!



Por el momento convección total , sobre todo en su zona Norte , buena cizalladura  y un horno cociendo para que posiblemente se convierta en un CAT.4 , y esto lo intuyo yo.

JTWC

WTPS21 PGTW 291700
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.3S 173.2E TO 15.4S 166.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 291630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 172.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S
172.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 291408Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE INCREASING CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 291031Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTED
A SYMMETRIC, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS, THE LLCC HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME WELL-DEFINED. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN
EXTENSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. OVERALL, THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED WITH CONTINUED GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF FIJI. NUMERICAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
301700Z.//





NADI

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/1400 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTRE 1003HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S
171.9E AT 291200 UTC. TD09F MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION
POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELCIUS.

ORGANISATION IMPROVED SLIGHTLY PAST 12 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES ALONG A
SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS IN A WEAK SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SYSTEM EXPECTED
TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS MAINLY BY THE DEEP LAYER MEAN EASTERLIES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE GRADUALLY DEVELOPING THE DEPRESSION AND MAINTAINING
A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.




Por el momento Tormenta Tropical camino de Vanuatu.

Anomalías en el SST , supongo por el insufrible Anthony , tanto tiempo estancado en la zona...



Larga vida a YASI

30 KT 1000 HPA

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A ver si Bureau no tardara mucho en  emitir alertas.
En 24 horas pasara por el N de Vanuatu.