1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN220 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 179.4E TO 13.6S 174.3WWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 261832Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 10.5S 179.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 179.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5S 179.8W, APPROXIMATELY 465 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE AREA OF SHARPEST TURNING. A 260653Z RSCAT PASS REVEALS THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED, WITH 25-30 KNOT CENTRAL WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN-FLAGGED REGION. ENHANCED CROSS-EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE LLCC ARE HELPING TO QUICKLY SPIN UP THIS DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE, WITH FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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