REMARKS:131500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 93.8E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 131149Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (PGTW, KNES) TO T3.0 (APRF). TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 96, TC 13S SHOULD TURN MORE POLEWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS MORE POLEWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 13S SHOULD INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 24 TC 13S SHOULD TRACK INTO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER VWS AND IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW (AFTER TAU 72), WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GREATER INTENSIFICATION RATE.
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