Ciclón Tropical VANIA Categoría 3(Tormenta Tropical 05P-Vanuatu/Nueva Caledonia)

Primer parte del JTWC



La M-WV ha mejorado mucho.


Torre, en principio a las 11:20 UTC

WTPS11 NFFN 111800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 11/2009 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 990HPA WAS ANALYZED NEAR 19.1S
169.4E AT 111800 UTC. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON
MTSAT IR/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

LLCC OBSCURED BY CIRRUS OUTFLOW. DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO NORTH
OF LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
DEPRESSION LIES ALONG A MONSOONAL TROUGH AND UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR. TD03F CURRENTLY
STEERED BY NORTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND.

DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4 WRAP LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=2.5, MET=3.0, PT=2.5 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP
THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR TD03F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD03F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
120200 UTC.




Esperemos que no gire al W ,bastante tienen ya por aquellas zonas australianas.....



TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NE OF
NOUMEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND CONSOLIDATE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE SUPPORTED BY  
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, NFFN, AND ABRF.
AN 111003Z ASCAT PASS DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC SHOWS 30-KT UNFLAGGED
WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A POINT SOURCE THAT IS ENHANCING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THIS IS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH
TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND INTENSIFYING IT TO A MINIMUM 60-KT
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TS 05P IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND SSTS
BEGIN TO DECREASE. THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT
OF THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMIC AIDS WHICH ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH IS BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE RIGHT OF
THE TRACK ENVELOPE AFTER TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110151Z JAN 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPS21 PGTW 110200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//


BOM

Forecast Positions
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (2pm, 12 Jan) 19.1S, 168.7E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+12 hours (8pm, 12 Jan) 19.3S, 168.2E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (2am, 13 Jan) 19.6S, 167.7E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (8am, 13 Jan) 19.9S, 167.2E 40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (8pm, 13 Jan) 20.8S, 166.4E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)
+48 hours (8am, 14 Jan) 21.7S, 165.9E 50 KTS (95 KM/HR)


De CAT.III no pasa...

La 03F ya ha sido nombrada VANIA y ya comenzó a ganar fuerza según la marina ya posee 40 kt

El patrón en capas altas está favoreciendo un buen outflow, con cizalladura inferior a 10kt, sobre aguas de 29ºC. Por tanto, no tiene otra que crecer mientras siga practicamente estacionario

VANIA prosigue con su lento, pero constante, desarrollo

05PVANIA.45kts-989mb-191S-1692E

El mapa de trayectorias de Nadi le otorga desarrollo a medida que se acerque a Nueva Caledonia

55 KT  987 HPA


Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 12/1343 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA. CENTRE 987HPA CAT 1 WAS ANALYSED NEAR
19.3S 169.2E AT 120600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HRES MTSAT VIS/EIR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE
CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT
05 KNOTS. 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 240 MILES OF CENTRE IN SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO
SOUTHWEST.

Evoluciona por momentos , vaya cambios...



Una duda que tengo ,por el momento le dan trayectoria directa al sur de New Caledonia , según los modelos llegara a 70-75 KT ,¿sera capaz esta pequeña extensión de terreno de rebajarla?



DATE/TIME     LAT      LON      CLASSIFICATION       STORM
  
12/0832 UTC   18.8S    169.4E       T3.0/3.0         VANIA  
12/0232 UTC   19.0S    169.7E       T3.0/3.0         VANIA  
11/2032 UTC   19.0S    169.6E       T3.0/3.0         05P  
11/1432 UTC   18.7S    169.1E       T2.5/2.5         93P  
11/0832 UTC   19.5S    169.0E       T2.0/2.0         93P  
11/0232 UTC   19.5S    169.7E       T2.0/2.0         93P  
10/2032 UTC   18.5S    169.8E       T1.5/1.5         93P  
10/1432 UTC   17.4S    170.4E       T1.5/1.5         93P  
10/0832 UTC   17.7S    170.0E       T1.5/1.5         93P  
10/0232 UTC   17.2S    170.0E       T1.5/1.5         93P  
09/2032 UTC   17.3S    169.7E       T1.0/1.0         93P


Ultimo aviso de Meteo France...

Message émis le : mercredi 12 janvier à 14h locales

A 11h00 locales le mercredi 12/01/2011, la dépression tropicale modérée "vania" était centrée par 19,1 sud 169,3 est, entre Erromango et Tanna au Vanuatu.La pression au centre est estimée à 988 hpa.la depression tropicale modérée "vania" se deplace direction ouest-sud-ouest à 5 km/h.les vents moyens sont estimés à 75 km/h (rafales à 110 km/h) dans un rayon de 55 km autour du centre.les vents supérieurs à 60 km/h (rafales à 90 km/h) s‘étendent dans un rayon de 450 km autour du centre.Vania continue à se renforcer. Sa trajectoire va s‘incurver vers le sud-ouest demain. Elle se rapprochera des Loyauté les menaçant directement demain.Le territoire est en pré-alerte.





Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Y como curiosidad y si se me permite  la prensa de la zona...

Joder, menudo fichaje hemos hecho en el mercado invernal, eh Torre?

Trabajo encomiable, Hardstyle

Y mientras tanto, Vania up to 60kts-978mb



Según Fiji, categoría 2 con 50 kts

Va a rondar la categoría 3 al final....

Nueva Caledonia, como extensión de tierra, no debe entorpecer desarrollo. Es un punto sobre un oceano caliente, el outflow (de tener condiciones arriba favorables) no debe verse afectado. De hecho ya es bastante bueno

Ala, ya está.

12/2032 UTC 19.6S 168.3E T4.0/4.0 VANIA -- Southwest Pacific

Y ojo porque JTWC en el pronóstico lo profundiza hasta 80kts, camino de New Zeland

Eso sí, posterior debilitamiento debido a su extratropicalización, en el digrama de fase se aprecia la perdida de simetría.

Hombre, tanto como ya está...

El eyewall está a medio camino. El outflow es bueno, pero no termina de mantener un centro definido. Hay bastante aire seco por el medio

Hombre, tanto como ya está...

Me refería a la estimacion Dvorak, que ya marcaba T4.0.

De todas formas su aspecto ayer era mejor que el de ahora.(unicamente fiándose uno del satélite)
Lo que dice JTWC no da lugar a dudas:

TC 05P IS SLOWLY TRACKING IN A GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN DIRECTION WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC VANIA IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE
VERY EASTERN TIP OF NEW CALEDONIA IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY SPEED UP AND
RECURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) BY TAU 72 AND WILL COMPLETE ET AS A STRONG STORM
FORCE LOW BY TAU 120.

Yo no estoy tan convencido de ese fortalecimiento que comentan(intucición )

65 KT 975 HPA


NADI le otorga categoria II

HURRICANE WARNING 026 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 13/0715 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2 SOUTH
167.9 EAST AT 130600 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 20.2S 167.9E AT 130600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY
131200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
             AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS          
             FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.9S 167.4E AT 131800 UTC
              AND NEAR 21.6S 167.1E AT 140600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 024.




JTWC

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (VANIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND A 130659Z 37 GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE THE MAJORITY OF
DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF TC 05P, WITH
LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT GOOD OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 55 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, ABRF, PHFO, AND KNES. TC 05P
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN, WHICH IS INDICATING A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING IN 27-29
DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS BUT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SST AS IT MOVES
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE
COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL ACT TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. TC 05P WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR TAU 72 AND TRANSITION TO A HIGH-
GALE FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN



A raíz de las imagenes , parece un sistema extratropical , estructura muy pobre , y pensonalmente no creo que aumente su intensidad.


Imágenes del radar de ayer 12-01-2001


Pepeavilenho ,gracias por la parte que me toca , espero hacer o intentar colaborar todo lo posible... Y lo que es más importante para mi aprender día a día de todos vosotros. Saludos