Ciclón Tropical VANIA Categoría 3(Tormenta Tropical 05P-Vanuatu/Nueva Caledonia)

20 knots  998HPA

El BOM no descarta que llegue a CAT.II


Advisory Number 4 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila
at 1:25am VUT Tuesday 11 January 2011.

At 11:00pm local time today, Tropical Low (998 hPa) was located near 17.4S 168.8E.
The Tropical Low is positioned at letter I, Number 7 of the Vanuatu Tropical
Cyclone Tracking map.  That is about 50 KM east northeast of Efate. The system
is moving southwest at 3 KM/HR. The potential for the system to become a
tropical cyclone  within the next 24 to 48 hours and move towards the Vanuatu
group is moderate to high.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (5am, 11 Jan)           17.6S, 168.8E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11am, 11 Jan)          17.8S, 168.8E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5pm, 11 Jan)           18.0S, 168.7E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11pm, 11 Jan)          18.2S, 168.6E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11am, 12 Jan)          18.6S, 168.0E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11pm, 12 Jan)          19.1S, 167.4E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Heavy rainfall and thunder is expected over Torba, Sanma, Penama and Malampa
provinces and extending to Shefa and Tafea provinces, later. Flooding over low
lying areas is expected. Winds of 40 to 60 kilometres per hour are expected
inland over south of Penama, Shefa, Malampa and Tafea Province in the next
24 to 48 hours. The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advices people
in these areas to take extra precautions, especially people closer to the river
banks.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next advisory on the system
at 06:00am today or earlier if the situation changes.  People should listen to
Radio outlets for any update information on this system.


Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 10/0825 UTC 2011 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 997HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 17.4S
170.1E AT 100600 UTC AND SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON TD03F, REFER TO THE LATEST TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

Weather Bulletin

Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 6:13pm on Monday the 10th of January 2011

Situation: A trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain
remains slow moving over the Fiji group.
Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Fiji group:
Occasional rain and few squally thunderstorms over most places.
Isolated heavy falls likely.
Flooding of low lying areas expected.
Moderate north to northeast winds, fresh and gusty at times.
Rough seas.



Marine Weather Bulletin
Issued from the National Weather Forecasting Centre Nadi
at 11:57pm on Monday the 10th of January 2011

Situation:
A trough of low pressure with associated cloud and rain remains slow
moving over the Fiji group.

Forecast to midnight tonight for Fiji waters:
 
North to northeast winds 15 to 20 knots.
Moderate to rough seas.
Moderate northerly swells.
Poor visibility in areas of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms.

Further outlook:  North to northeast winds up to 20 knots.

El CIMSS ya sigue al sistema , al igual que el centro meteorológico de Fiji.








ECMWF



Importante salto ha dado en sus ultimas 24 horas. Saludos

Vanuatu Group General Situation
A tropical low (998hPa) was located at 16.9S 169.6E, 100000UTC, east of Epi extends a trough over the group.


Ultima  Vanautu Group Forecast Chart:

Parece que ''VANIA'' anda al acecho....

...y la TCFA está al caer, JTWC cataloga al sistema con Fair

25 KT 996 HPA



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.8S  
169.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 170.0E, APPROXIMATELY 115NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL  
IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INCREASING AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE NEAREST REPORTING STATION,  
BAUERFIELD EFATE, VANUATU, IS REPORTING 03 MB 24 HR PRESSURE FALLS.  
ALTHOUGH THE LLCC HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND CONVECTION HAS  
INCREASED, A 100252Z AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS  
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE 100000Z UPPER  
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN A  
REGION OF BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND AN AVERAGE OF 10 KTS OF VERTICAL  
WINDSHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS  
IMPROVED AND THERE IS NOW RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. SATELLITE  
DATA REPORTS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA  
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR  
DEVELOPMENT INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24  
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.





Apuestan por una intesificación :   EC - GFS - NOGAPS - UK

Porquita organización, circulación no definida, vaguada demasiado amplia. Si se mantiene estacionaria, logrará ser algo, basicamente porque ganará tiempo al no escapar a baroclinidades

Sale una nueva trayectoria y probablemente este futuro ciclón esté afectando nueva caledonia.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE 995HPA   


LAS PROBABILIDADES DE QUE SE CONVIERTA EN CICLON DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24-48 HORAS SIGUEN SIENDO DE MODERADA-FUERTE

Viendo las últimas imágenes de satélite la 03F a mejorado su aspecto en las pasadas 6 horas y ya el JTWC lanzó la alerta de formación tropical , no deben tardar en aumentarle el rango a ciclón tropical.   

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2S 171.3E TO 24.6S 166.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS

Pues posee buen aspecto.

---

Esto es lo que dice Fiji:

LLCC DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH DEEP CONVECTION PRESISTENT IN THE LAST
3 TO 6 HOURS OVER THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY
DETACHED FROM TD03F. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 6
HOURS DUE TO DIURNAL VARIATION.

SYSTEM LIES ALONG A MONSOONAN TROUGH AND UNDER A 250HPA DIFFLUENT
REGION. CIMSS INDICATE SYSTEM LIES ALONG A WEAK TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIROMENT, HOWEVER, HIGH SHEAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AS A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE FAR SOUTH GENERATES A SOUTHEAST WIND SURGE.
NORTHWESTERLY SURGE REMAINS MODERATE. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY 5
TO 10 KNOTS NORTHERLY. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35 LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT=2.0, MET=

2.5, PT=2.0 AND FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

Meteo France ya sigue al Sistema , ya que según los últimos modelos va dirección W - SW , dirección New Caledonia

Infos cyclone :  
 
Message émis le : mardi 11 janvier à 12 h locales  
 
Le territoire est placé en pré-alerte cyclonique.  
 
A 5h00 locales le mardi 11/01/2011, une dépression tropicale faible  
était centrée par 18,3 sud 170,0 est (soit juste à l'ouest d'Erromango au Vanuatu)  
La pression au centre est estimée à  996 hpa.  
La dépression évolue doucement sur le Vanuatu en se renforçant progressivement dans les prochaines 24/36 heures. Elle n'est pas encore baptisée mais le sera probablement d'ici demain Elle devrait ensuite prendre une trajectoire vers l'ouest sud-ouest qui la rapprochera des Loyauté en continuant de se renforcer. Elle représente donc une menace sérieuse pour les Loyauté à partir de Jeudi et pour la Grande Terre ensuite.  
Les conditions de vent et de pluies vont s'aggraver progressivement demain mais surtout jeudi.  

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

La circulación se cierra, los topes se enfrían. Parece haberse organizado. Los avisos como ciclón no deben tardar

La marina le otorga intensidad de tormenta tropical además ya la nombran 05P 

05PFIVE.35kts-996mb-190S-1689E

El visible alcanza a la tormenta. A la espera de que NADI actualice