25 KNOTS 997 HPA

At 9am Monday another low was located near 15S 112E and was nearly stationary.
This low is currently in an unfavourable environment but conditions for
development are likely to improve by Wednesday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region:
Tuesday :Low
Wednesday :High
Thursday :High


NOTES: Development Potential is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Low: 5% - 20%,
Moderate: 20% - 50% High: Over 50%

The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of Latitude 10S.
Further information on Tropical Cyclones is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone/



Vaya desarrollos ...



Tuesday   :Low
Wednesday :High
Thursday  :High

Por el momento el JTWC le da FAIR

ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/101800Z-111800ZJAN2011//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
  A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
  B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 111.3E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 111.1E APPROXIMATELY 440 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE WESTERN SEMI CIRCLE. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A
101126Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO 30 KTS OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
A 101348Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEVELOPED LLCC WITH MAX 30-KT
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN
ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. A SHARP DECREASE IN VWS EXISTS BETWEEN 15 AND 17 DEGREES SOUTH
LATITUDE AND ANY SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WOULD BRING IT INTO
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE REGION ARE 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND
THE TWO NUMERIC MODELS FORECASTING A SOUTHERLY TRACK, THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Lo dicho a partir del miércoles ;profundización...

30 KT  996 HPA

El CIMSS también sigue al 91S

El BOM designa al sistema como Baja Tropical

40 KT  994 HPA


Por el momento la potencia aun más el BOM.



Comienza a organizarse mucho mejor y rapidamente , el LLCC  comienza a ser visible...



Aunque se va a encontrar con un entorno realmente seco si sigue con tendencia SE.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert emitida.

Según JTWC, GOOD



Europeo desarrolla, y además de forma contundente

Descenso de cizalla en los próximos días, con movimiento O-SO
REMARKS:
The LLCC was clearly visible on VIS imagery. Recent microwave imagery showed the
exposed LLCC and assisted in locating the centre. The LLCC has improved
significantly and the CDO has shown some consolidation despite ongoing shear of
close to 20 knots as indicated on the CIMSS analysis. The shear is forecast to
drop overnight due to a retrogressing upper trough, though models differ on the
relative location of the LLCC to the upper trough, leading to some uncertainty
as to how much the shear will drop. However, in general, conditions should be
much more favourable for development over the next 48 hours.

A ver hasta donde llega, BOM apuesta por esto:

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time   : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]       : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 12/0000: 15.1S 107.3E:     060 [110]:  040  [075]:  984
+24: 12/1200: 15.5S 108.2E:     090 [165]:  050  [095]:  979
+36: 13/0000: 15.7S 110.0E:     120 [225]:  055  [100]:  977
+48: 13/1200: 16.6S 112.2E:     155 [285]:  070  [130]:  966
+60: 14/0000: 17.5S 114.0E:     200 [375]:  080  [150]:  957
+72: 14/1200: 18.2S 114.8E:     250 [465]:  085   [155]: 948
Saludos

De momento la cizalladura está marcando su desarrollo

Bureau le otorga nombre......   VINCE  

Name: Tropical Cyclone Vince
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.9S
Longitude: 107.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: Stationary
Speed of Movement: 0 knots [0 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 987 hPa

El centro estás totalmente expuesto, signo de que se encuentra cizallado. Además, el ambiente no es excesicamente húmedo 



A ver si el JTWC se empana, y actualiza datos

La marina ya actualizó los datos

06SSIX.35kts-996mb-149S-1076E

Eso si, falta que lo llamen VINCE. Las cosas de palacio, van despacio... 

40 knots  986 HPA  


El CIMSS ya lo nombra .. VINCE

Vaya trayectoria E  para luego girar al W , no tocara tierra. Cambios muy bruscos de los modelos.





Que de decir de la gran cizalladura que esta sufriendo , aunque con una gran convección.

Pues desde Australia si que le dan cancha en el pronóstico.



Confían en que descienda la cizalladura.



Y la verdad que su aspecto es peor que el de su ''homónimo'' en 2005

La cizalldura ronda los 15-20kt. Muy alta para un ciclón tan pequeño