REMARKS:121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 171.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN EXTREMELY WELL DEFINED AND CLOUD-FREE EYE FEATURE, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TC WINSTON HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF 40 KNOTS IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN T5.5 AND T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES RESPECTIVELY. TC WINSTON IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 30 TO 31 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 36 THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS AND REPOSITIONS TO THE NORTH OF TC WINSTON, RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE EAST THEN NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN AND MAINTAINS A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THE NEAR-TERM RAPID INTENSIFICATION, TC WINSTON WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER AREAS OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) AND SSTS, WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY EXPERIENCING INCREASING VWS. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK TO AN EASTWARD TRACK ALONG 20 DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE, OHC AND SSTS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AND VWS WILL REMAIN MODERATE, THEREBY ALLOWING TC WINSTON TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.
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