Depresión Tropical 03 (97S-Índico SW)

30 KT  996 HPA

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3

2.A POSITION 2011/01/02 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 80.9E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 180 SO: 150 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/01/03 00 UTC: 12.3S/80.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/01/03 12 UTC: 13.1S/79.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/01/04 00 UTC: 13.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2011/01/04 12 UTC: 14.2S/78.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2011/01/05 00 UTC: 14.7S/77.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/01/05 12 UTC: 15.4S/75.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATTERN HAS IMPROVED TEMPORARILY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE HAS BEEN RELOCATED SOUTH OF THE ANALIZED POSITION AT 06TU.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS STILL EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD POLEWARD BUT IS RATHER POOR EQUATORWARD.
SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOEDRATE EAST-NORTH-EAST UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER WIND SHEAR EFFECT IS LIMITED IN RELATION WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE IS ALSO LIMITED.

MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD RATHER SLOWLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD.

Importante golpe convectivo que ha cogido en las ultimas  6 horas...
El CIMSS y Meteo France ; hacen seguimiento.

30 kT 996

BULLETIN DU 02 JANVIER A 22H30 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE
MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES.

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

DEPRESSION TROPICALE 03-20102011

PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 996 HPA.
POSITION LE 02 JANVIER A 22 HEURES LOCALES:  11.7 SUD / 80.3 EST
(ONZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGTS  DEGRES TROIS EST).

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES:    2805 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST
DEPLACEMENT:                         OUEST-SUD-OUEST A 11 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE
AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 12.9S/78.7E
DEPR. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 13.8S/77.5E
PERTURB. TROPICALE, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 15S/75.6E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER
AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE
LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.

PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 04H30.LOCALES





Lo veo muy cortado....

No es que esté cortado, es que está afectado por cizalladura de 20-30kt (E), que desplaza la convección al W del centro

Ayer METEO FRANCE la nombró depresión tropical , hoy a disminuido su intensidad a perturbación tropical 

Latitude : 13.6S
Longitude : 81.2E
Type : Perturbation tropicale
Pression Mer : 998Hpa
Vent Max. Moy. : 46Km/h
Rafales :

25 KT  998 HPA

Ultimo parte de Meteo France

WTIO30 FMEE 031207


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/3/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3

2.A POSITION 2011/01/03 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 81.2E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES
EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/01/04 00 UTC: 13.9S/81.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2011/01/04 12 UTC: 14.3S/81.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
36H: 2011/01/05 00 UTC: 14.7S/80.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2011/01/05 12 UTC: 14.9S/80.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2011/01/06 00 UTC: 15.1S/79.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2011/01/06 12 UTC: 15.3S/77.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS BLOWED FAR TO THE WEST AND THE SOUTH OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE LLCC IS TOTALLY EXPOSED AND BECOMES LESS EN LESS DEFINED.
SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKENESS IN THE ANTICYCLONIC
BELT.
AS IT UNDERGOES THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN WESTWARDS
.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD REMAIN UNFAVOURABLE AND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
WITHIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS.

LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION






Meteo France le da poca vida ...tiende a disiparse, todas las condiciones las tiene en contra...Trayectoria W

Ayer METEO FRANCE la nombró depresión tropical , hoy a disminuido su intensidad a perturbación tropical 

¿Tienes constancia? Es que yo juraria que miré, y no vi que la consideraran como tal. Aunque a lo mejor, lo miré a destiempo 

Cita de: HurricaneMex en Lunes 03 Enero 2011 14:35:43 pm

Ayer METEO FRANCE la nombró depresión tropical , hoy a disminuido su intensidad a perturbación tropical 

¿Tienes constancia? Es que yo juraria que miré, y no vi que la consideraran como tal. Aunque a lo mejor, lo miré a destiempo 

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20102011
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
2.A POSITION 2011/01/02 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 80.9E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) : NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 180 SO: 150 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2011/01/03 00 UTC: 12.3S/80.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2011/01/03 12 UTC: 13.1S/79.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2011/01/04 00 UTC: 13.6S/78.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
48H: 2011/01/04 12 UTC: 14.2S/78.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2011/01/05 00 UTC: 14.7S/77.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2011/01/05 12 UTC: 15.4S/75.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5-
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS PATTERN HAS IMPROVED TEMPORARILY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE HAS BEEN RELOCATED SOUTH OF THE ANALIZED POSITION AT 06TU.
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS STILL EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE STAGE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD POLEWARD BUT IS RATHER POOR EQUATORWARD.
SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOEDRATE EAST-NORTH-EAST UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER WIND SHEAR EFFECT IS LIMITED IN RELATION WITH THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE IS ALSO LIMITED.

MOST OF THE NWP MODELS FORECAST A TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD RATHER SLOWLY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD.


GOOOL

Con eso me vale. Basicamente para dejar constancia en el topic y tal

Por cierto, puede terminar recuperando terreno a medida que se aproxime a Madagascar

Hola , Meteo France deja de seguir al  97-S

INFORMATION CYCLONE DU 04/01/2011 A 18:14 UTC

IL N'Y A PAS DE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL ACTUELLEMENT EN COURS
SUR LA ZONE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN.


De momento tranquilidad , y a la espera si el 97S  evoluciona un poco más...
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Meteo France vuelve a seguir al sistema 97S

Actualmente posee 20 - 25 KT  1003 HPA

A mejorado respecto ayer.. pero poco futuro le ven al sistema.


Ultimo boletín  ( 5 Enero 11:57 UTC )

Déplacement : Ouest à 6 kt.

Pression estimée au centre : 1003 hPa.

Vent maxi : 10/15 kt atteignant localement 20/25 kt dans le
demi-cercle Sud loin du centre.


Pour les trois prochains jours, l'ensemble des modèles numériques
disponibles comblent lentement le minimum associé aux résidus de la
DT nr3 tout en le maintenant dans un lent déplacement  vers
l'Ouest. Ils ne creusent pas le minimum situé au Sud-Ouest des
Seychelles. Le manque d'alimentation avec un air particulièrement
sec dans les basses/moyennes couches est le principal facteur
manquant dans les deux cas. Seul le modèle ALADIN creuse des petits
minimums au-delà de 24 heures d'échéance, entre Madagascar et les
Seychelles, mais ce scénario semble peu vraisemblable.


Pour les prochaines  72 heures,

il n'y pas de risque de formation d'une dépression tropicale.

Buenos días , el CIMSS deja de seguir al sistema, yo sigo opinando que ha mejorado en su circulación.. Saludos..

20 KT  1006 HPA



Meteo France vuelve a emitir...


BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST  INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2011/01/07 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1 :

WARNING SUMMARY :   Néant.

PART 2 :

 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  :


Transequatorial flow persists West of 75E, and mainly West of 60E
and feeds two areas of convection  south-west of Seychelles Islands
and south of the Mozambique Channel.


South-west of Seychelles :

Convective activity is moderate and very fluctuating, located from
47E to 56E between 6S and 12S.   Within this activity, a weak low
level vortex is centered near 10S/51E at 10TU, almost stationnary,
with winds in range of 10/15 kt, and an estimated pression of
1008hPa. Equatoral and polar inflows are moderate. Upper level
vertical wind shear is weak to moderate.


In the south of the Mozambique Channel :

Convective activity is moderate to strong, located from 40E to 45E
and from 17S to 24S,  and concerns the western coast of Madagascar
from Besalampy to Toliara. Low level inflow is rather good but the
upper levels north-west vertical wind shear is strong ahead of an
upper tropospheric trough. According to the last animated satellite
pictures, convection isn't organized.

Remnants of Tropical Depression nr3 :

Fluctuating  convection remains located within the western part of
the exposed low level circulation.

Estimated position of the centre at 1100Z : 13.6S/71.0E

Motion: westward at 6 kt

Estimated minimum pressure : 1006 hPa

Maximum winds : 10/15 kt reaching 20 kt in the southern semi-circle
far away from the centre.


Within the next three days, the area of convection south of the
Mozambique Channel is expected to dig into the southern latitudes
and associated convective activity should edge away south-west of
Madagascar within the next 24 hours.

Remnants of Tropical Depression nr3 :

Fluctuating  convection remains located within the western part of
the exposed low level circulation.

Estimated position of the centre at 1100Z : 13.6S/71.0E

Motion: westward at 6 kt

Estimated minimum pressure : 1006 hPa

Maximum winds : 10/15 kt reaching 20 kt in the southern semi-circle
far away from the centre.

Within the next three days, the area of convection south of the
Mozambique Channel is expected to dig into the southern latitudes
and associated convective activity should edge away south-west of
Madagascar within the next 24 hours.