Buenos Días "again"

- PAGASA

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "HUANING" (Ex-Invest92W)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Sunday, 12 July 2009

The low pressure area East of Northern Luzon has developed into a tropical depression and was named "HUANING".

Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 450 km Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 18.9°N, 126.4°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: West Northwest at 19 kph.

- JTWC

Parece que se aprecia LLCC, con vientos en torno a los 17-22 kt y presión en 1005mb, con baja cizalladura... pronóstico "GOOD"

WTPN21 PGTW 120430
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 126.8E TO 25.0N 121.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 127.2E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD REGION OF
MID-LEVEL TURNING, EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 120104Z AMSU-B PASS
SHOWS INDICATIONS OF CURVED INFLOW TOWARDS THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REFLECTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE LOCATED
OVER THE LLCC PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE LLCC
IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS).
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER THE REGION ARE
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI-
MATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD

- Pagasa emite segundo aviso...

El grupo de islas de "Los Batanes" parece que se llevará la peor parte...

Severe Weather Bulletin Number TWO
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "HUANING"
Issued at 4:45 p.m., Sunday, 12 July 2009

Tropical Depression "HUANING" continues to threaten the Batanes group.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 280 km East Southeast of Basco, Batanes
Coordinates: 20.0°N, 125.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center
Movement: Northwest at 22 kph.

El JTWC eleva el rango de invest a la Depresión Tropical 06W (30kt). Pocas perspectivas de desarrollo ya que tiene que atravesar Taiwán, con muy buen aspecto, por cierto

Mmm, cuidadín, que HUANING ha pasado como un obús por Taiwán, y no ha perdido un ápice en organización. Es más, está tapando el centro bajo un buen manto convectivo... Y la situación el altura no está nada mal



Si no tuviese a la China continental por el medio, diría que sin ningún problema sería Tifón, porque tiene un excelente flujo de salida. Si aminora la marcha, podemos hablar de que conseguirá el estatus de tormenta antes de entrar en tierra definitivamente

Finalmente HUANING entró como Depresión de 30kt en China, ya que el ambiente en altura empeoró con el paso de las horas. Y la cercanía con tierra impidió que llegase a algo más
Ya se deshace sobre tierra