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invest_ep922010.invest
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201008200640
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   INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 92, 2010, DB, O, 2010082000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP922010
EP, 92, 2010081900,   , BEST,   0, 158N, 1029W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 92, 2010081906,   , BEST,   0, 163N, 1039W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 92, 2010081912,   , BEST,   0, 168N, 1049W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 92, 2010081918,   , BEST,   0, 173N, 1059W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 92, 2010082000,   , BEST,   0, 176N, 1066W,  25, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  150,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, D,
EP, 92, 2010082006,   , BEST,   0, 179N, 1073W,  25, 1006, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  160,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,







1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOLER WATER.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Pues va a ser este el sistema que pronosticaba el europeo viajando hasta Baja California...pero de todas formas es a una semana vista...no sé, me parece excesivo... 

De todas formas JTWC ya lanza la alerta de formacion tropical.


Y buen aspecto desde el satélite...


Toca Frank

Que rapido ha mejorado 






1. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 240 MILES
WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING.  IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.  THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC...MOVING AWAY FROM
MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 530 AM PDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 107.8W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Este si va rapido....cambien el titulo!

THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF TIME IN WHICH TO
STRENGTHEN...AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO SUB 27-C WATERS IN 36 TO 48
HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SHEAR OF 20 TO 30
KNOTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE UNTIL IT REACHES THE COOLER
WATER.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING TO A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN ABOUT
3 DAYS.

Se aprecia el centro expuesto a la cizalladura del NE.

Amanece en el EPAC.



Lo tiene realmente dificil....pero claro, el NHC como siempre cubiréndose las espaldas con todo aquel sistema cercano a la costa, y como es normal, planteándose que alcance 35 kts.

Nah, tipica bacalá Epaquiana

2º aviso, en el que mantiene 30 kts.

Destaco:

IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE CYCLONE COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE VERTICAL
SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT...AND BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL
BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

Ya ni se plantean en el pronóstico que alcance los 35 kts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 19.1N 107.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.8N 108.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 20.4N 110.0W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 20.7N 111.3W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 20.8N 112.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NEXT!!

Otro engendro depresionario, aunque no llega aún al nivel de los Stewartienses....



Destaco del 3º aviso.

THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO REMAIN 20 KT OR HIGHER OVER
THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C BY 36 HOURS. ALL OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST

Es basicamente lo mismo que en los 2 avisos anteriores.

Poco que rascar esta vez.

Lo que pudo ser y no fue....
No al menos con cizalladuras de 25 kts.


El próximo aviso del NHC tiene pinta de que será el último

Pues no, no era el ultimo, y ya van 7 avisos.

THE DEPRESSION IS NOW A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL NEARLY VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM...AND
THE COLD WATER COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL LIKELY REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO.

Y habrá un 8º aviso....

THERE HAS BEEN NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E SINCE ABOUT 15Z...AND THE SYSTEM CENTER IS MOVING OVER
STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  SIGNIFICANT
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW.  THE LOW SHOULD
MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HR BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY.

A otra cosa, mariposa