Tormenta Tropical FELICIA (07-E. SO México - Pacífico Este)

Nuevo bichejo a seguir en el Pacífico Este, que no tiene un remanso de paz. Código ROJO
Lanzada la alerta por formación tropical, por parte de las agencias.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large low pressure
system located about 750 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, are
continuing to become better organized. Satellite-derived wind data
indicate that the surface circulation has also become better
defined. If these recent development trends continue, then a
tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form later
tonight or on Monday while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Stewart

Fuerza de Depresión Tropical, con 30kts-1008mb pero no termina de "carburar" del todo, debido a la cizalladura, que desplaza todo el grueso de la convección, hacia el W de su LLCC. A poco que se relaje, tendremos nuevo "bicho" a la vista.

Habemus nueva Depresión Tropical. Y es tan reciente, que aún no la han cambiado en la página web del NHC, no así en la Marina, que sí upgradea al sistema. A falta del primer parte, del Track y de la discursión, esto es lo que hay de momento.

No sé ni como, pero nace Felicia.



 

No va a durar ni un telediario.

Ni siquiera un Telediario. Degradada a Depresión Tropical y con visos de ser "remanente", esta noche.

The rather harsh thermodynamic atmospheric environment and
decreasing sea surface temperatures continue to have a substantial
effect on Felicia's cloud pattern.  The cyclone's circulation
consists mainly of a swirl of stable stratocumulus low clouds with a
diminishing deep convective curved band displaced well to the east.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory based on a
compromise of the final-T and CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB.
Felicia should continue to spin down and become a remnant low either
tonight or Saturday morning, with dissipation expected in 3 days or
less.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/9 kt.
There are no significant changes to the forecast philosophy in this
advisory.  As Felicia continues to weaken into a shallow system, a
turn toward the west within the low-level easterly flow of the
subtropical ridge is expected tonight.  The NHC forecast is
essentially an update of the previous advisory but nudged
slightly toward the right to side with a blend of the GFEX and TVCN
multi-model consensus forecasts.

Forecaster Roberts