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invest_ep942010.invest
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201009010627
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   INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2010, DB, O, 2010083118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP942010
EP, 94, 2010083018,   , BEST,   0, 131N, 1011W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 94, 2010083100,   , BEST,   0, 137N, 1022W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 94, 2010083106,   , BEST,   0, 142N, 1034W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 94, 2010083112,   , BEST,   0, 151N, 1051W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
EP, 94, 2010083118,   , BEST,   0, 155N, 1058W,  25, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  240,  75,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
EP, 94, 2010090100,   , BEST,   0, 159N, 1066W,  25, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1009,  225,  75,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
EP, 94, 2010090106,   , BEST,   0, 163N, 1073W,  25, 1007, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  250,  75,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,





1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

De momento el JTWC no emite el TCFA.


Toca esperar esta vez, aunque no se yo...

Cuidado codigo rojo.





1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Sigue mejorando.





1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Lanzada la alerta de formación tropical.


De formarse TT, toca Georgette

El catapún que ha dado en las últimas horas, ha sido....... tal como se ve en las animaciones del Visible. En el próximo parte podemos tener a "GEORGETTE" y ojo que parece que ha puesto ruta a Baja California Sur.
Saludos.

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

De hecho en el ATCF aprarece como DEPRESIÓN TROPICAL, seguramente confirmado en el próximo parte por el NHC:


EP, 10, 2010090306,   , BEST,   0, 196N, 1094W,  30, 1001, TD

Imagen del radar

La Marina confirma la depresion tropical , por lo tanto tenemos la depresion tropical 10 E

Visible

No parece que vaya a adquirir nombre...Al menos eso dicen desde Miami.

ALTHOUGH THE
DEPRESSION COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER...EASTERLY SHEAR AND ITS
PROJECTED PATH OVER COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN LINE
WITH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS...NONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

Pues no parece, no. Aunque la cizalladura es buena, su trayectória hacia W-NW lo lleva hacia aguas marginalmente propicias y hacia un buen paquete de aire seco. La vorticidad tampoco es para tirar cohetes. No creo que pase de DT.