Depresion Tropical 10 E (Invest 94 E - SW Manzanillo Mexico)

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Re: Depresion Tropical 10 E (Invest 94 E - SW Manzanillo Mexico)
« Respuesta #12 en: Viernes 03 Septiembre 2010 21:11:13 pm »
Estos sí que están de frenopático... :rcain:

THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH SOME
INDICATION OF INCREASED BANDING ORGANIZATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...AND 3.0...OR 45
KT...RESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONALLY...TWO AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES
USING THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE SUGGESTED WINDS JUST BELOW AND JUST ABOVE
35 KT. 
WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL
SWIRL IS SEEN EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  WHILE WE DO NOT BELIEVE
THAT THIS IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...IT DOES
INDICATE THAT INTENSITY IS NOT AS HIGH AS WHAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUGGEST.
  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.




Yo de verdad.....no entiendo nada :rcain:
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Garganta del Villar (-17.6ºC) - Puerto El Pico (-11.4ºC)

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Re: Depresion Tropical 10 E (Invest 94 E - SW Manzanillo Mexico)
« Respuesta #13 en: Sábado 04 Septiembre 2010 04:35:00 am »
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 032032
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010


THE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME
APPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A
1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN
THE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE
SYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.
THUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY
SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36
HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...  :rcain: THE SYSTEM
MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W 25 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48HR VT 05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72HR VT 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE
Desde Madrid centro.

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Re: Depresion Tropical 10 E (Invest 94 E - SW Manzanillo Mexico)
« Respuesta #14 en: Sábado 04 Septiembre 2010 11:49:57 am »
¡Y esa discusión! :mucharisa:

Citar
BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...

Esto es peor que los ''ballets'', las ''improvisaciones'' de Bertha, o ''Epsilooong''; todo ello patrocinado por el Sr.Avila.

Afortunadamente para el NHC en el satélite no se ve gran cosa...

 8)

edito:el NHC emitió el ultimo parte sobre el sistema esta mañana.... ;)
« Última modificación: Sábado 04 Septiembre 2010 21:58:36 pm por Pepeavilenho »
Seguimiento Polos del Frío 2013-2014
Garganta del Villar (-17.6ºC) - Puerto El Pico (-11.4ºC)